MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (10/7)
The Major League Baseball playoffs roll on with two important Game 2s in each of the American League Division Series. The Guardians and Yankees each overcame long layoffs to win as favorites in Game 1, and now Cleveland is the first team to find itself as home underdogs facing he likely AL Cy Young Award winner in Tarik Skubal.
Who do we like to win these two games? Read on for our top ALDS picks for Monday, October 7.
Monday's Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (-130) at Cleveland Guardians (+110) | O/U 6.5 (+102/-124)
At some point, Detroit's lack of power and dearth of contact hitters are going to catch up with it, and Cleveland's deep bullpen should make up for the huge starting pitching edge the Tigers have in this game.
Last year, teams went 25-4 in the postseason when out-homering their opponents, and had a .843 winning percentage when doing so since 2018. That does not bode well for continued success from the Tigers, who finished the regular season ranked 24th in home runs.
Detroit is also striking out at too high of a clip. Entering this series, Colt Keith was the only regular in the Tigers lineup that had a strikeout rate under 20% (the league average was 22.6%). In addition, some of their best hitters like Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, and Riley Greene, all struck out in at least 25.3% of their plate appearances.
Of all playoff teams, the Guardians had the second-lowest OPS from the top three spots of their lineup. But what Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and others do well is take a lot of pitches and work opposing pitchers' pitch counts. The Guardians should also come in with confidence knowing they produced 10 hits off Tarik Skubal in his only start against them this year. That was the most hits Skubal allowed this season, and he only allowed eight-plus hits in two other appearances.
MLB Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+110)
Kansas City Royals (+126) at New York Yankees (-148) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)
If Game 2 plays out anything like the way Game 1 did, the Royals are going to be a pesky out in this series.
Game 1’s five lead changes were the most in a single game in MLB postseason history, and Kansas City put real game pressure on the Yankees with their ace on the mound, as they got to Gerrit Cole for three earned runs over five innings.
Kansas City figures to have the edge in this starting pitching matchup, as the Yankees have struggled all year against southpaws. New York went 73-45 against right-handed pitchers in the regular season, compared to 21-23 against southpaws. Cole Ragans struck out 29% of batters this season (sixth-highest among qualified starting pitchers, 91st percentile), and his changeup has become an elite weapon, as he had induced a 48% whiff rate and .251 xwOBA against it entering the playoffs.
Meanwhile, I do not trust Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon, as the team is 4-4 in his last eight starts, and 8-10 in his previous 18. The Yankees out-scored the Royals 14-6 in the two starts Rodon make against them this year, but Kansas City tagged him for four runs in the second start, and that type of run support would be more than plenty for Ragans in this matchup.
MLB Pick: Royals Moneyline (+126)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.