Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (6/10)
As Major League Baseball begins a new week in mid-June, there is a clear difference in the dynamics of the standings between each league. In the American League, all three divisions have five or fewer games separating first and second place, while all National League divisions have at least a 6.5-game gap between the top two teams. What will the standings look like by week’s end?
We have three plays teed up at plus-money odds, so read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, June 10.
Monday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles (-154) at Tampa Bay Rays (+130) | O/U 7.5 (-104/-118)
The Baltimore Orioles improved to 16-6 against AL East opponents with their third straight victory over the Tampa Bay Rays this weekend. The series victory increased their franchise-record streak of not losing series to divisional opponents to 21, with their last series loss to a divisional opponent coming back in April 2023.
The Orioles have already out-scored the Rays by a combined 20-5 in this series, with all wins coming by three or more runs. In addition, they now send ace Corbin Burnes to the mound, as the team is looking for their fifth consecutive win in his starts, and all of the previous four have come by two or more runs, with the last two coming against AL East opponents. Burnes has made eight consecutive quality starts, and Baltimore has a huge starting pitching advantage, with the Rays’ Ryan Pepiot leading the team to just one win over a winning team this season.
Baltimore has covered the runline in a whopping 17 of 22 games against AL East opponents, and while its moneyline odds do not break the bank even with its ace on the mound, we are opting for more value by laying the 1.5 runs.
MLB Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+114)
Chicago White Sox (+190) at Seattle Mariners (-230) | O/U 6.5 (-122/+100)
This series opener between the Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners seemingly has a curiously low total, especially when considering Chicago’s collective team ERA of 4.96 (ranks 29th in the majors), which falls to an MLB-worst 5.74 in road games. However, the White Sox have one of the few silver linings in their rotation taking the mound tonight, as Erick Fedde rides a solid ground ball rate (48.4%) to do a decent job of limiting home runs (0.97 HR/9 rate). In addition, Fedde’s 3.70 xFIP compared to his 4.21 actual FIP in road games suggest positive regression is coming, and should come in this start against the home run-reliant Mariners.
Conversely, Seattle’s Logan Gilbert is on pace for career-bests in ERA (3.12), hits per nine innings (6.7) and WHIP (0.980). He is also on pace for a second consecutive season with a 0.72 or better ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, and he is 2-0 in four career starts against Chicago, with a 0.98 ERA and just one home run allowed in 18 1/3 innings.
The Under has cashed in 67.6% of Seattle’s games following a win, and is 20-10-2 in its home games this season. We are not falling for the bait with this low total, and are riding with the contrarian Under.
MLB Pick: Under 6.5 (+100)
Houston Astros (-118) at San Francisco Giants (+100) | O/U 8 (-122/+100)
It still seems crazy to think that we are entering mid-June, and the Houston Astros are closer in the standings to the last-place Los Angeles Angels than they are to the first-place Seattle Mariners. The Astros are .500 (23-23) against right-handed starting pitchers this season, but are just 7-13 against southpaws, while the San Francisco Giants are a respectable 28-19 against teams under .500 this season.
Giants southpaw Kyle Harrison should turn in a decent start against an Astros lineup who has three of their best hitters (Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez striking out at least 16% of the time against left-handed starting pitchers, while Alex Bregman is slashing just .192/.250/.321 against southpaws. Meanwhile, we expect San Francisco to have success against Spencer Arrighetti, who ranks in the 15th percentile in chase rate, the 14th percentile in whiff percentage, and who is also in the bottom quarter of the league in inducing ground balls. Arrighetti also has the worst Stuff+ rating (82) of any Astros pitcher with a minimum of 20 innings pitched, so a Giants offense that has scored five-plus runs in four of their last seven games should get to that total once again.
MLB Pick: Giants Moneyline (+100)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.