MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/16)
As the dog days of September have arrived, more and more Major League Baseball teams are receiving deserved days off on Mondays and Thursdays, and today is no exception with a small 10-game slate. However, there is still plenty of days to scour among those 10 games, and I have done the dirty work for you in assembling my top two most confident bets of the day.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, September 16.
Monday's Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Minnesota Twins (-118) at Cleveland Guardians (+100) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)
Cleveland has dominated the season series against Minnesota to this point, winning seven of the nine matchups, and the Twins have done nothing of late to give confidence that they can compete with the AL Central leaders now.
Minnesota is 4-8 in its last 12 games, and it has won just one series against a team over .500 since July 29. We are getting good value to back the Guardians in this matchup as the Twins are 4-0 with a +14 run differential in Pablo Lopez’s last four starts. And while Lopez has nine-plus strikeouts in three of those starts, the Guardians figure to put the ball in play with much more regularity, and even struck out just twice in beating the Lopez-led Twins early in the season.
Conversely, half of Matthew Boyd’s six starts this season have been quality starts, and the southpaw has dazzled with a 2.18 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Boyd’s three highest strikeout totals have come in his last three starts, and he looks fully stretched out at this point, throwing a season-high 95 pitches in his last outing.
I expect Boyd to lead the Guardians to victory in this series opener over a Twins squad that ranks 22nd in OPS and 25th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers since the All-Star Break.
MLB Pick: Guardians Moneyline (+100)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-118) at Atlanta Braves (+100) | O/U 7.5 (-114/-106)
If this were Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s first start off the IL, I would have a lot more trepidation backing the Dodgers. I am still limiting this wager to the first five innings, as Yamamoto was limiting to just 59 pitches on Tuesday in his first start since June 15. However, he was more than economical with that low pitch count, recording eight strikeouts and inducing three more ground balls compared to four fly balls against a Cubs lineup that was red-hot at the time.
Meanwhile, the Braves are an underwhelming 3-7 in Max Fried’s last 10 starts, and have provided him with two or fewer runs of support in each of the previous six. I do not expect Atlanta to all of a sudden break out the bats early in this one, as it ranks 21st or worse in wRC+, OPS, and strikeout percentage in home games against right-handed pitchers in the second half of the season.
Atlanta has had just one winning streak of four-plus games since July 10, and though it had won an NL-best 48 games against teams over .500 entering Sunday, I am still backing the Dodgers in this one, who have a lot to play for after the Padres have suddenly made the NL West race interesting.
MLB Pick: Dodgers First Five Innings Moneyline (-122)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.