Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/6)
Settle in for another jam-packed Saturday of sports. Between the international soccer tournaments and a full slate of Major League Baseball, it’s another wire-to-wire sports day. I’m keeping it on the diamond for my favorite MLB picks, where I’ve narrowed in on three plays for today’s 15-game schedule.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox (+150) vs. New York Yankees (-178) | O/U 9.0 (-110/-110)
The Red Sox issued the Yankees a loss in last night’s series opener, beating them 5-3 in 10 innings. The two rivals are back at it this afternoon, and we have a pitching matchup between Josh Winckowski and Gerrit Cole. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY.
These two clubs are trending in completely opposite directions. Last night’s win marked Boston’s fifth straight victory, while New York’s defeat pushed them to an abysmal 4-14 in their last 18 games. Somehow the Yankees are still a massive -178 Moneyline favorite today. I mean, we all know it’s simply because Cole is pitching. The right-hander hasn’t looked good through his first three outings of the year, though, posting a 6.23 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. His FIP is 7.31, the worst of any of today’s starting pitchers.
I think this is a great spot to back the Red Sox as a sizable underdog. They’ve been playing well, winning their last five games. Over the five-game stretch, Boston is averaging 6.0 runs per game. In terms of pitching, they’ll turn to Winckowski (2.80 ERA, 3.58 FIP), who has limited New York’s current roster to a slash line of .250/.375/.300 over 20 at-bats. Furthermore, Boston has the edge in the bullpen, where they’re ranked fifth in ERA (3.43) and 10th in WHIP (1.22). New York’s 11th (3.69) and 14th (1.26) in those respective categories. Let’s back the Sox in this one.
Bet: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+150)
Chicago White Sox (-154) vs. Miami Marlins (+130) | O/U 7.0 (-104/-118)
The White Sox took care of business in the 305 last night, notching their fifth win in their last eight games. They’ll square off against the Marlins again this afternoon, and we have a pitching matchup between Garrett Crochet and Yonny Chirinos. The first pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET from loanDepot Park in Miami, FL.
When I saw this pitching matchup I thought there was a chance we’d see a total of 6.5 runs for this interleague clash. So, I’ll gladly play the under at a flat 7.0 runs. Let’s start with Garrett Crochet, who has been terrific this season. The southpaw is 6-6 with a 3.02 ERA (12th) and 0.93 WHIP (fourth). His 141 punchouts are the second-most in the league (Tyler Glasnow is first with 143). I mentioned earlier Gerrit Cole has the worst FIP (7.31) of the day. Well, Crochet is today’s best starting pitcher across the Majors, logging a FIP of just 2.37.
Miami’s offense is in horrid form right now. Over the last 14 days, they’re ranked dead last in wRC+ (63), wOBA (.256) and ISO (.111). They’re also 25th in strikeout percentage (26.4%), which won’t bode well against Crochet and his 12.52 K/9 rate.
The White Sox aren’t much better offensively. Chicago has found some offensive success recently, but over the last two weeks, they’re still just 20th in wRC+ (92), 21st in wOBA (.299) and 24th in ISO (.141). With the combination of Crochet and these two bottom-tier offenses, the under feels like a no-brainer here.
Bet: Under 7.0 Runs (-118)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-102) vs. San Diego Padres (-116) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
The night wraps up out west as the Diamondbacks take on the Padres. San Diego took last night’s series opener in walk-off fashion, as Manny Machado clubbed a two-run bomb in the ninth to win 10-8. Tonight’s pitching matchup pits Brandon Pfaadt against Matt Waldron. The first pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA.
The storylines all week have been about how Christian Walker is on an insane tear, blasting five home runs in three games against the Dodgers. While that’s great, Arizona is still an underwhelming 5-7 in their last 12 games. The reigning National League Pennant winners just haven’t been able to put everything together this year. I think this is another great spot to bet against them — especially at a cheap Moneyline price of -116.
This is mostly a fade of Pfaadt, who brings in a 4.28 ERA (60th) and 1.17 WHIP (34th). Those numbers inflate on the road, climbing to 5.03 and 1.19, respectively. Furthermore, San Diego’s current lineup has his number, slashing .343/.380/.478 over 67 at-bats. This includes stars Luis Arraez (7-for-10, 2B), Jake Cronenworth (6-for-12), Jurickson Profar (3-for-6, HR) and Manny Machado (2-for-7, 2B), who have gone a combined 18-for-35 (.514) against Pfaadt.
San Diego’s offense is on fire, ranking third in wRC+ (127) and fourth in wOBA (.342) over the last 14 days. They’re primed for another big night and should provide Waldron (3.56 ERA, 3.61 FIP) with plenty of run support. Let’s ride with the upward-trending Friars at home.
Bet: San Diego Padres Moneyline (-116)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: