Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/14)
Between college football, a full 15-game MLB slate, UFC 306, and European soccer returning from international break, we should be in for a fantastic sports Saturday. I'm keeping it on the diamond for my best bets today. Here are my top three plays in the MLB.
Join our new MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>
Saturday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Miami Marlins (+120) vs. Washington Nationals (-145) | 8.5 (-120/+100)
The Nationals notched a 4-1 victory last night, issuing the Marlins their fourth loss in their last five games. The divisional foes are back at it this afternoon, and we have a pitching matchup between Valente Bellozo and Patrick Corbin. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET from Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
This number of 8.5 runs feels a bit inflated, so I'm playing the under with an even-money payout. To be frank, these offenses are pretty bad. They're both bottom-half units over the last two weeks. For the Nationals, they're 19th in both wRC+ (88) and wOBA (.293) over the last 14 days, while the Marlins are 22nd in both categories (80, .285).
From a pitching standpoint, Bellozo just faced the Nats last Wednesday, blanking them over 6.0 innings, allowing only three hits and two walks. The right-hander has looked decent for the Fish in 2024, registering a 3.57 ERA over 10 starts. As for Corbin (5.60 ERA), he's posted a modest 3.86 ERA over his last five starts (28.0 IP). I like this matchup for the left-hander against Miami's lousy offense. Let's play the under 8.5 runs.
Bet: Under 8.5 (+100)
Los Angeles Dodgers (+105) vs. Atlanta Braves (-125) | 7.5 (-115/-105)
The marquee matchup of the day comes in Georgia, as the Dodgers and Braves go toe-to-toe. Atlanta won last night's series opener in a 6-2 contest, and they'll turn to Chris Sale to keep things rolling. Los Angeles counters with Jack Flaherty in this heavyweight matchup, which is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.
Sale has been lights out this season, and he’s basically a lock to win the N.L. Cy Young award as we approach the end of the year (-3000 at BetMGM Sportsbook). The left-hander enters the weekend at 16-3 with a 2.38 ERA (1st) and 1.00 WHIP (6th). His 213 strikeouts are the third-most in the MLB. In his last six starts, Sale's opponents are averaging only 1.5 runs per game. This guy is so dialed in that it doesn't even matter to me that he's facing the Dodgers. I think he'll turn in another quality start, helping to keep the game under the total.
Flaherty will oppose Sale tonight, and he's looked great since coming over to Los Angeles at the deadline. The right-hander is 5-1 with the Dodgers, posting a 2.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He's riding a three-start quality start streak, and he just blanked the Guardians over 7.0 innings in his last outing. Flaherty gets an Atlanta offense that's ice cold, ranking 26th in both wRC+ (74) and wOBA (.275) over the last 14 days. Let's sit back and enjoy the top-tier pitching - give me the under.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers (+120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) | 8.5 (-115/-105)
The Brewers picked up their second straight victory last night, edging out the Diamondbacks 2-1 in their series opener. Game two should be a good one, as we have a pitching matchup between Tobias Myers and Brandon Pfaadt. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
I'm playing the over in this National League clash. For starters, Pfaadt (4.42 ERA) has been far from overpowering lately. The right-hander has given up 21 earned runs over his last five starts (27.1 IP), which equates to a 6.91 ERA. Milwaukee's offense has had his number in the past, as their current roster is slashing .308/.308/.385 against him over 13 at-bats.
On the flip side, Myers has slotted in nicely to Milwaukee's rotation, going 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. However, I highly doubt the right-hander will stifle this top-ranked Arizona offense for a second straight night. Arizona's offense has been on a tear this season, ranking first in both runs per game (5.46) and OPS (.777), while sitting second in team batting average (.263) and fourth in home runs (191). Both of these offenses have plenty of star power, and I think we'll see it on display tonight. Give me the over.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-115)