Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/28)
Between a full slate of college football, European soccer and a thrilling MLB playoff race, we have a loaded sports Saturday on the horizon. I'm staying on the diamond for my top plays today, where I've narrowed in on my three best bets.
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Saturday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cincinnati Reds (+108) vs. Chicago Cubs (-126) | O/U 7.0 (-106/-114)
This matchup between the Reds and Cubs has no playoff implications, as both teams are eliminated from the postseason. However, it should be an entertaining game as Cincinnati's Rhett Lowder squares off against Chicago's Kyle Hendricks. First pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL.
Hendricks had a rough season in 2024, as he enters his final assignment of the campaign at 4-12 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. The right-hander gets a decent matchup for his last start of the year, taking on a Cincinnati offense that's cooled off over the last few weeks. Over the last 14 days, they're 23rd in wRC+ (82) and 20th in wOBA (.295). Hendricks also has a head-to-head edge, where he's limited the Reds' current lineup to a slash line of .220/.291/.300 over 50 at-bats.
Lowder, who was the seventh overall draft pick in 2023, has transitioned nicely into the Majors after dominating at Wake Forest during his college years. The 22-year-old has made five MLB starts, going 2-2 with a 1.40 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. I see no reason why the right-hander won't continue his dominant stretch to close out the year. Both Hendricks and Lowder will have Mother Nature at their backs, as Swish Analytics projects that there will be 18.8-mile-per-hour (MPH) winds blowing in from dead center throughout the game. The series opener finished 1-0 in favor of the Cubs yesterday. I'm going right back to the under this afternoon.
Bet: Under 7.0 Runs (-114)
New York Mets (+102) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-120) | O/U 8.0 (-110/-110)
As of Saturday morning, the Mets own a Wild Card spot. They're 87-71, which is tied with both the Braves (87-71) and Diamondbacks (88-72), but both National League East teams have the tiebreaker over the Snakes, rendering Arizona the first team out. New York still has to take care of business to punch their ticket to the postseason. They'll be leaning on Jose Quintana this evening. The Brewers counter with Jared Koenig in this National League showdown, which is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI.
Koenig will be making just his sixth start of the season tonight. He hasn't pitched more than 2.2 innings in any of his 54 appearances in 2024. It's safe to say the Crew will be going with a bullpen game here. Typically, I'm looking to bet overs when the game falls on the relief staff. That'll be the case here, especially since Milwaukee's bullpen is tasked with taking on a dangerous New York offense. Over the last 14 days, the Mets are ranked sixth in wRC+ (116) and eighth in wOBA (.331). With their playoff lives on the line, I expect their offense to bring their best.
On the flip side, while Quintana has been hot recently, he's running into a Milwaukee offense that has had his number in the past. The current roster is slashing .306/.414/.551 against him over 49 at-bats. Over the last 14 days, the Crew is ranked 14th in wRC+ (101) and 13th in wOBA (.314), yielding them a top-half offense in the Majors. I'm playing the over in this game. I like that it's a flat 8.0 runs, giving us push potential if the offenses aren't as viable as expected.
Bet: Over 8.0 Runs (-110)
Kansas City Royals (+136) vs. Atlanta Braves (-162) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
The Royals, despite losing 3-0 last night, have punched their ticket to the postseason, courtesy of a Twins' defeat. They'll take on the Braves tonight. This interleague clash features a pitching matchup between Seth Lugo and Reynaldo Lopez. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.
The Braves still have a lot to play for as we close out the regular season. They'll be turning to one of their best pitchers in Lopez, who enters the weekend at 8-5 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 128.2 innings pitched. The right-hander is familiar with the Royals from his time in the American League Central. He's held their current roster to a slash line of .250/.320/.485 over 68 at-bats. Kansas City's offense has been the worst in the Majors over the last two weeks, ranking dead last in both wRC+ (57) and wOBA (.252). I'm not anticipating much offense from the Royals, so I'm jumping on the under.
As for Lugo, he's been one of the most underrated pitchers in the MLB this year. The veteran will be making his 33rd start of the season. He's 16-9 with a 3.03 ERA (10th) and 1.09 WHIP (14th). He's found success against the Braves in the past, holding their current roster to a slash line of .221/.312/.412 over 68 at-bats. I think runs will be at a premium in this marquee pitching matchup, so give me the under.
Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: