MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (10/6)
We’re headed to the diamond for two Game 2 NLDS matchups tonight. I’ve got a best bet for both matchups, and I’ll share them below!
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks
Here are our top MLB picks for Sunday’s slate of baseball action.
MLB odds courtesy of DraftKings FanDuel Sportsbook| All wagers are for 1 unit
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Mets will roll with Luis Severino in Game 2. After a win yesterday, the Mets now have the series advantage.
That said, Severino still struggles against lefties. The right-hander has allowed a .292 ISO and wOBA of .455 to his last 53 lefties. In addition, he’s given up 25.6% of line drives and 28.2% of fly balls. Severino will dominate the right-handed batters in the Phillies’ lineup. But Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper can do lots of damage against Severino.
Still, the Phillies figure to have only four lefties in the lineup. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh would be the other two lefties, and those two haven’t produced much against righties lately. As long as Severino pitches around Schwarber and Harper, he likely escapes damage.
Meanwhile, Cristopher Sanchez will start for the Phillies. The left-hander isn’t a high strikeout thrower, but he’s held his last 94 batters to a .116 ISO and wOBA of .272 with more than 51% of grounders. Sanchez has been consistent throughout most of the season and doesn’t allow many line drives.
The Mets have really struggled to hit starting pitching over the last couple of weeks. However, this time, I don’t think the Mets add a ridiculous comeback win against the bullpen with the Phillies down 1-0 in the series. Ultimately, this will be another low-scoring game. Take the Under.
Pick: Under 8 (-115)
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Yu Darvish will get the ball, looking to get the Padres even in the NLDS series against the Dodgers. Darvish has struggled with lefties since returning to the mound. He’s allowed a .257 ISO and wOBA of .311 with only 20% of strikeouts against lefties over the last month.
Darvish hasn’t allowed a high hard-hit rate but has still allowed 33.3% of fly balls to lefties and 10% of walks.
He’ll likely struggle against the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy, who have all drilled right-handed pitching as lefties over the last month. Freeman hasn’t had insane success, but he’s still held strikeouts to 10.6% and has walked 17% against righties in the previous 30 days.
On the other hand, it’ll be Jack Flaherty. Flaherty is a right-hander who has been awful against righties over the last month. He’s given up a .286 ISO and wOBA of .427 to his previous 43 righties, along with a 60% hard hit percentage and 28% of line drives. Flaherty will have to face lethal righties like Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado, who have both shown off power against righties over the last 30 days.
Both teams’ batting lineups are better than their starters. Just like last night, this game should go over the total.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110)