MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (7/21)
Because of the four-day All-Star break, many MLB teams were able to reset their rotations and use their best pitchers in the first couple of games of their respective series.
Ultimately, that means we’ll see a bunch of No. 3 starters with the occasional No. 1 because a pitcher pitched during the All-Star break. Let’s take advantage. Here are a couple of my favorite bets for today’s MLB slate.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks
Here are our top MLB picks for Sunday’s slate of baseball action.
MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All wagers are for 1 unit
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
It feels like the wrong team is favored in this matchup.
Shota Imanaga was an All-Star and even pitched in the game. But the left-handed rookie hasn’t looked good over the last 30 days. Instead, he’s allowed a .253 ISO and wOBA of .390 to his previous 96 batters.
Over the last month, Imanaga has also earned just 20.8% of strikeouts and given up 39.4% of fly balls and only 32.4% of ground balls.
Now, the Diamondbacks don’t hit for much power against lefties. But they’ve still got six batters in the projected lineup that have added a .350 wOBA against lefties over the last 30 days. Arizona can get on, be patient and will just need to come through a couple of times with runners on to escape with a road win.
That’s because the Diamondbacks will roll with Brandon Pfaadt. The young right-hander has held his last 90 batters to a .116 ISO and wOBA of .273 over the previous month. Pfaadt has earned more than 56% of ground balls over the last 30 days and has limited teams to only 13.6% of line drives.
I’d trust Pfaadt way more than Imanaga in today’s game.
Pick: Diamondbacks (+106)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
The Baltimore Orioles will send out Dean Kremer for today’s game against the Rangers. The right-hander has done very well against righties, but he’s struggled badly against lefties over the last 30 days.
Kremer has allowed a .281 ISO and wOBA of .392 to lefties over the last 30 days. He’s also allowed 42.9% of fly balls and has added just 28.6% of ground balls induced against lefties.
Unfortunately, he’ll take on a Rangers lineup with three excellent lefty hitters against righties. Corey Seager has smacked a .246 ISO and wOBA of .412 against his last 66 righties. Josh Smith has earned a .264 ISO and wOBA of .398 against his last 66 lefties.
Additionally, lefty Nathaniel Lowe has also ripped a .191 ISO and wOBA of .348. These three batters have a lot of potential against Kremer.
On the other hand, Andrew Heaney will get the call for Texas. He’s a left-handed pitcher who has added 27.4% of strikeouts and only 6.3% of walks over the last month. He’s given up a .203 ISO to righties in the previous 30 days but has held his last 70 righties to a .261 wOBA.
The Orioles should have seven righties in the lineup tonight. Therefore, Heaney will have an advantage statistically. Let’s back the Rangers at home on the Moneyline.
Pick: Rangers (-104)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: