MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (9/29)
It’s the final day of the MLB regular season. Thus, every game will be played at 3 p.m. ET, and there will be no Sunday Night Baseball game.
Most teams are checked out. Some teams will bench their starters, and others will allow young prospects to showcase themselves for the final time of the season.
Many teams’ lineups will be completely different heading into the final day, so make sure to check everything over before making a bet.
Here are two of my favorite plays for the day.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Picks
Here are our top MLB picks for Sunday’s slate of baseball action.
MLB odds courtesy of DraftKings FanDuel Sportsbook| All wagers are for 1 unit
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Mets are still fighting for a National League Wild Card spot heading into the final day of the regular season. Technically, the Mets still have three games to play, including a doubleheader tomorrow. But for now, they can clinch a playoff spot if they win and the Diamondbacks lose.
The Mets have a tiebreaker and would be up two games on Arizona with a win and a Diamondbacks loss.
Right now, the Mets are playing tensely. The offense is absent, and the pitching staff is trying to do too much.
That all changes today.
The Mets are facing Colin Rea of the Brewers, who has allowed a .287 ISO and wOBA of .444 to his last 95 batters. Rea has limited walks and line drives. But he’s still allowed over 39% of fly balls and rarely induces ground balls. Rea hasn’t been striking out many batters over the last 30 days, earning below 18% of strikeouts.
New York still has consistent power against righties.
On the other hand, David Peterson will take the bump for the Mets. Peterson has a 3.08 ERA throughout the season and has added 24% of strikeouts with a .101 ISO over the last 30 days. Peterson has limited walks well and has allowed only 13.2% of fly balls with 15.2% of swinging strikes.
Milwaukee’s lineup has struck out at a high rate against lefties despite what we saw from Manaea and Quintana over the last few days. Finally, give me the Mets to take care of business today.
Pick: Mets (-120)
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
If the Mets win tonight, the Diamondbacks must do the same. But their matchups don’t look nearly as good.
The Diamondbacks will use Brandon Pfaadt, a right-handed pitcher who has allowed a .300 ISO and a wOBA of .424 to his last 58 lefties.
As of now, projections believe the Padres will play starters. That could change. But for now, Pfaadt will take on four lefties that have hit a .360 wOBA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. The other five righties have also shown power, hitting a .196 against righties over the last month.
Pfaadt has allowed 50% of hard contact over the last 30 days and has allowed a 29% barrel percentage to lefties. The Padres should be able to add runs against Pfaadt, who is only good for strikeouts.
On the other hand, Martin Perez will start for the Padres. He’s a lefty who has limited his last 68 righties to a .065 ISO and wOBA of .242. His numbers against righties are critical because he’ll face eight righties in tonight’s Arizona lineup. The Diamondbacks righties have been red-hot against lefties over the last month. However, Perez has limited righties to a 4% barrel percentage in the previous 30 days against righties.
I like the Padres to upset the Diamondbacks tonight.
Pick: Padres (+154)