MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (10/17)
Both MLB League Championship Series are on display today. While one leaves the bright lights of New York, another enters. The Yankees will try to take a commanding 3-0 series lead, while the Mets will attempt to prevent going down 3-1.
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Thursday's Best MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Yankees (-115) at Cleveland Guardians (-105) | O/U 7.0 (-122/+102)
In the League Championship Series, teams that have gone up 2-0 have won the series 84% of the time. The Yankees have patience at the plate, with 10 walks in this series. That has helped them get to the Cleveland bullpen early. In Game 2, with the Guardians having their ace Tanner Bibee on the mound, he got taken out in the second inning.
With most of the lineup contributing, the Yankees’ most important player had been missing. Aaron Judge had games with back-to-back sacrifice flies, but we hadn't seen the big fly until last night when he hit his first home run of the postseason to break the game open.
Clarke Schmidt was good enough in his American League Division Series (ALDS) start, going 4.2 innings and allowing two earned runs and a win.
The Guardians had their chances in Game 2. They had bases loaded twice and couldn't get the big hit against a Yankee lineup that could score. To make matters worse, the bullpen is exhausted. They went through seven relievers, including Erik Sabrowski, who pitched in back-to-back games for the first time all season.
They must hope being at home and feeling the crowd can help them in some of those big situations, but they must get ahead early.
Playing in Cleveland will help them, and if they get runs, the Yankees’ bats will continue to stay hot.
Pick: Over 7.0 Runs (-122)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) at New York Mets (+114) | O/U 7.0 (-120/+100)
The Dodgers went up 2-1 with another dominant performance. For the second time in this series, they scored 8+ runs and shut out the Mets. The bottom half of that lineup was doing a lot of grunt work as the 7-9 hitters had four of the eight RBI. Shohei Ohtani had not homered since Game 1 of the National League Division Series NLDS, but he hit a big three-run shot that broke this game open.
Los Angeles’ biggest concern was its questionable pitching, but it has the best staff in the playoffs. Four of their five wins have been shutouts, and two have come on the road. Yoshinobu Yamamoto started the clinching Game 5 with his best performance since returning from the injured list (IL), going five scoreless innings.
The Mets had a lot of spark and excitement from the last day of the regular season to the start of this series, but it’s worrisome when you get shut out for a second time.
As important as Ohtani is at leadoff for the Dodgers, Francisco Lindor is for the Mets. He’s gone hitless in Game 1 and Game 3 but had a home run and scored twice in that Game 2 win. He’s been that team’s MVP in the second half, and they seem to live or die by his performance. That becomes a problem when eight other guys need to step up, but Pete Alonso is batting .212, Starling Marte is hitting .250 and Brandon Nimmo’s batting average is .222.
If someone can stop the bleeding, it’s Jose Quintana. In 11 innings during the playoffs, he’s allowed zero earned runs on six hits.
We’ve seen that just because the Mets were blanked, doesn’t mean they can’t play better the next day. This is another series where we’ve seen scoring, so run the over back again.
Pick: Over 7.0 Runs (-120)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: