MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/27)
Happy Opening Day. It’s a new MLB season - one of the most exciting days on the sports calendar. Every team feels optimistic and, most importantly, every team’s best pitcher will be on the mound. We’ll examine a couple of games and give you the best bet for each.
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Thursday’s MLB Best Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) at Miami Marlins (+130) | O/U 6.5 (-112/-108)
The hype around the Pirates’ season is a little higher than in previous years. They may not necessarily be a championship contender, but they made moves to improve the team.
Neither the pitching nor the hitting was good in 2024; they finished 20th in ERA (4.15) and 24th in runs per game (4.10). They have some young stars they can build around; Oneil Cruz is a star in the making, but it's the starting pitcher everyone will be focused on.
Paul Skenes’ stardom is rising thanks to his National League Rookie of the Year campaign and the news of his $1 million baseball card. If he had enough starts to qualify, he would have led the league with a 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He saw the Marlins once last year, allowing one earned run and striking out nine batters across six innings.
The Marlins have been living in mediocrity for many years, finishing with over 80 wins (excluding the 2020 season) just once in the last 14 seasons. They made no noise during the offseason, so it will likely be another underwhelming season in South Beach.
Sandy Alcantara will get his first action since October 2023 after missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. That could have been the reason for his massive regression in 2023 with a 4.14 ERA and a 3.9 WAR after recording a 2.28 ERA and 8.0 WAR in his National League Cy Young Award-winning 2022 season.
The Pirates were able to ride Skenes’ performance to victories last season. While neither lineup is lethal, Pittsburgh has the edge.
Pick: Pirates -1.5 (+120)
Milwaukee Brewers (+130) at New Yankees (-155) | O/U 8.0 (-102/-118)
A lot has happened for the Yankees since their World Series loss. Unfortunately, this will not be the same lineup that played in the Fall Classic. The most notable subtraction is Juan Soto, who signed with the New York Mets in free agency. The injury bug has also plagued them; Gerrit Cole had Tommy John surgery. Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu are both starting the season on the injured list (IL). You have to wonder how Aaron Judge will perform with Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt behind him.
With no Cole, Carlos Rodon will get the Opening Day start. He’s tough to hit off of when everything works. He gets those swings and misses, but he's been inconsistent and has problems staying in the field.
The Brewers easily won the National League Central last season, but it wasn't much of a competitive division, with the other teams barely finishing above .500. We saw in the playoffs that the division’s lack of competition hurt them, losing in the Wild Card round to the Mets. They made many changes, especially to the pitching staff, which included signing Jose Quintana and trading for Nestor Cortes from the Yankees.
Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee after another solid year with a 3.68 ERA. He likes to get hitters to chase pitches out of the strike zone, but he will give up walks if he faces a disciplined team.
Both lineups have a lot of pop, and each starting pitcher could struggle giving up the long ball. Each team also changed their bullpen and lost some of their best relief arms, so this game could go over the projected total.
Pick: Over 8.0 Runs (-102)