Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/2)
The ‘dogs were barking on the opening day of the Major League Baseball postseason yesterday, as road teams won three of the four games. Now plenty of MLB’s best teams throughout the regular season are on the brink of elimination, so can any of them win and fight to live another day?
After going 2-0 with our MLB player prop bets on Tuesday, we are back to keep the momentum going with some MLB best bets today.
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, October 2.
Join our MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>
Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (+146) @ Houston Astros (-174) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
Tarik Skubal built off his Pitching Triple Crown season and joined Justin Verlander as the only pitchers in Tigers history to make a postseason start of six-plus scoreless innings and allow two or fewer walks. Manager A.J. Hinch knows he does not have another starting pitcher close to the caliber of the likely Cy Young Award winner, and feels his best chance to end the series now is with a bullpen game. That is a sound strategy, as the Tigers bullpen finished the last month of the regular season with a 3.72 xFIP, a 21.9% strikeout rate, and a 6.1% walk rate.
Hinch's experience managing the core of the Astros (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, etc.) cannot be understated, as he has the best scouting report possible on them having managed them for five years and leading them to the 2017 World Series.
Houston missed a golden opportunity to take control of this series having faced a southpaw in Game 1, as it ranked fourth in wRC+ over the second half of the season against southpaws compared to the Tigers ranking 26th in that split. But the gap was not as wide when facing right-handed pitching, as Detroit finished 18th while Houston ranked 10th, and that gives me confidence that the Tigers can get to Astros righty Hunter Brown. Brown has already thrown five fewer innings this year than he had in his previous seasons combined, so it is fair to wonder if fatigue will start setting in. His hometown Tigers are a great value play to end the series this afternoon.
MLB Pick: Tigers Moneyline (+146)
Kansas City Royals (+132) @ Baltimore Orioles (-156) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Zach Eflin was one of the most underrated acquisitions at the trade deadline, as Baltimore went 7-2 in his nine starts, which included wins over the AL's top two teams (the Yankees and Guardians). Eflin has pitched to a 2.37 ERA since the start of August, and the Orioles only scored one run combined in the two games they lost when the righty toed the rubber.
Kansas City squeaked out a win in Game 1 without producing an extra-base hit and totaling just three at-bats with runners in scoring position. It is a team that went 12-18 in its final 30 games, and ranked 21st in wRC+ and 29th in walk rate on the road this season.
Behind a strong outing from Eflin, I expect the Orioles to even this series, with Baltimore getting to Seth Lugo. Lugo finished the regular season ranked second in WAR behind only Tarik Skubal, but Kansas City went 3-7 in his final 10 starts, including losing each of the final three.
There is the possibility that Baltimore plays tight knowing it was swept out of the playoffs last year, but I expect it to show some grit and to extend its season with a win as home favorites.
MLB Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-156)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.