Top MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/9)
This is one of the rare days in the entire Major League Baseball postseason where all games between the National League and American League are played on the same day. We have scoured the data and come up with our best bets on both the AL and NL side.
After going 2-0 with our MLB player prop bets on Tuesday, including a +165 cash on Castellanos’ Over 0.5 RBIs, we are back to keep the momentum going with some MLB best bets today.
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, October 9.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Guardians (-112) @ Detroit Tigers (-104) | O/U 7 (-115/-105)
The historical trends favor the Tigers for the remainder of this series. When a Division Series under the current 2-2-1 format is tied 1-1, the team heading home for Games 3 and 4 has won the series 66% of the time (29 of 44).
After the Guardians pitching staff between Matthew Boyd, Cade Smith, and Tim Herrin matched zeroes with Tigers ace Tarik Skubal for seven innings in Game 2, it seemed the momentum was swinging to Cleveland. However, Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, who had not allowed multiple runs in an outing or a home run to a left-handed batter all season was tagged for a three-run home run. And though it was the first time in Clase's six postseason appearances that he allowed a run, the back end of Cleveland's bullpen is no longer seemingly invincible.
I expect Tigers manager A.J. Hinch to once again employ another "Chaos Ball" strategy with some sort of abridged bullpen/opener game. While that strategy backfired in Game 1 with Cleveland scoring five runs in the first inning before recording a single out, I trust Hinch to mix and match and find the right combinations that work. He also has the built-in advantage knowing that Skubal will be on full rest if the series gets to a Game 5, which will help some bullpen decisions in this game.
Cleveland's Alex Cobb is toeing the rubber for just the fourth time this season. He was shelled for five runs on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings in his only road start this season. And while Cleveland's "Big Four" of Smith, Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and Clase will likely be called upon once again to make up the bulk of the relief work, the more Detroit faces them in a short span, the more the advantage tilts in the Tigers favor.
MLB Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-104)
Philadelphia Phillies (-116) @ New York Mets (-102) | O/U 7 (-122/+100)
With a 7-2 win in Game 3, the Mets improved to 5-4 at home against the Phillies this year.
The Phillies missed a chance to take a 2-1 lead in this series as they had the hitting split advantage in Game 3, with better splits against southpaws than the Mets had against right-handed pitching. Now New York faces a left-hander in Ranger Suarez who has not pitched in 11 days, and the Phillies finished the regular season 0-3 in his last three starts, with one of those coming against the Mets.
New York ranked fourth in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers after the trade deadline. The Mets made Suarez labor through 91 pitchers over five innings in a 6-3 win in his second-to-last start of the regular season, and eventually pushed two runs across in his five innings.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia struggled against lefty Sean Manaea yesterday despite Manaea entering with an 0-3 record and a 10.66 ERA in his postseason career. Now they get another southpaw in Jose Quintana, who led the Mets to five wins in his last six starts, and blanked the Phillies on three hits in seven scoreless innings in a win on September 13.
Quintana mixed his pitches well in his lone postseason start this year, a 4-2 win over the Milwaukee Brewers, when he threw four pitches at least 20% of the time. His sinker and curveball induced a 32% and 37% CSW%, respectively, and he was effective in keeping the ball down, with an 11:5 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio.
New York is 13-2 in its last 15 home games, so getting it at short -102 odds is a great value.
MLB Pick: Mets Moneyline (-102)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.