Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/18)
As we continue through this third week of September, several teams are losing ground in what were once tight division races. Only one of the six division races are separated by fewer than four games (NL West), though the AL wild card race has tightened a bit, as now two teams are within three games of the final wild card spot.
We are looking to build off Monday’s 2-0 start to the week with another trio of MLB best bets. Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, September 18.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Francisco Giants (+140) @ Baltimore Orioles (-166) | O/U 8.5 (+102/-124)
This Giants-Orioles total is somewhat inflated despite Baltimore’s recent offensive struggles, as oddsmakers likely believe the Orioles are getting a reprieve in the middle game of this three-game series between facing Blake Snell and Logan Webb. However, I would have confidence no matter who the starting pitcher is to shut down an Orioles lineup that has struggled through the extended IL stints of Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle, as Baltimore has topped four runs just once in the last 11 games.
Baltimore is in its worse hitting split of late when facing right-hander Hayden Birdsong, as it ranks 25th in wRC+ and 28th in OPS against righties over the last month, and it is collectively hitting .202 in that span. That is not a recipe for success when facing Birdsong, who ranks in the 72nd percentile in xBA and the 77th percentile or better in both whiff percentage and strikeout rate.
The Orioles had cashed the team total Under in 48 of their last 75 games entering Tuesday (+18.75 units/22% ROI), and I also expect Dean Kremer to keep the Giants off the scoreboard, as he has made quality starts in five of his last six appearances, while pitching to a 2.62 ERA and an even more impressive 2.53 FIP in that stretch.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-124)
Minnesota Twins (-104) @ Cleveland Guardians (-112) | O/U 7.5 (+100/-112)
Minnesota beat Cleveland yesterday to even this series at one game a piece, but Monday’s crushing loss where Minnesota blew a 3-0 fourth-inning lead and a 3-1 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh acted as the proverbial “nail in the coffin†in terms of their chances of chasing down the Guardians for the AL Central crown.
Cleveland has dominated the season series against Minnesota to this point, winning eight of the 11 matchups, and the Twins have done nothing of late to give confidence that they can compete with the AL Central leaders now. Minnesota is 5-9 in its last 14 games, and it has won just one series against a team over .500 since July 29.
Despite Twins righty Bailey Ober pitching to a 2.75 ERA through three September starts, the team is just 1-4 in his last five outings, and Ober has beaten one winning team since the calendar turned to August. I will take my chances with Tanner Bibee, whose 2.91 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in 22 career second-half starts suggests he is ready to help Cleveland try and nail down the best record in the AL over the final two weeks of the regular season.
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (-112)
New York Yankees (-124) @ Seattle Mariners (+106) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)
The Yankees historically do not play well on the West Coast, and they are overvalued in this matchup even when facing a Mariners team that does not have much chance of making the playoffs at this point.
New York southpaw Nestor Cortes’ confidence was tinkered with when the decision was made to use him in some spots as a long reliever out of the bullpen. However, perhaps that was the right move, as he does project as the weakest link in the Yankees rotation (even though he was the Opening Day starter when Gerrit Cole was out). Cortes has pitched to a 4.81 ERA and allowed a .266 OBA in 15 road appearances, and Seattle has hit lefties well of late, ranking sixth in wRC+ and 11th in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last month.
This is a matchup of MLB’s best road team (the Yankees are 46-30 on the road) against a Mariners team that is one of just two AL teams that is 14-plus games over .500 at home. Seattle had profited its moneyline backers 8.74 units with a 10% ROI in going 41-24 in its last 65 home games entering Tuesday, and I will take my chances that New York’s struggles against inferior opponents continues.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (+106)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.