Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (9/25)
There are just five days left in the Major League Baseball regular season, and today’s slate is filled with juicy potential playoff matchups between the Yankees and Orioles, the Dodgers and Padres, as well as the cut-throat battle for a wild card spots between two NL East rivals (the Mets and Braves). Do any of these games make our MLB Best Bets for the day?
Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, September 25.
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Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles (+118) @ New York Yankees (-138) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)
After performing as one of MLB’s top offenses for the entire first half of the season, injuries unfortunately caught up with the Orioles down the stretch, and one place it impacted heavily was their offense.
Baltimore ranks 18th in both OPS and wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the second half of the season, and those rankings drop to 26th and 25th, respectively, over the previous 30 days. Now Baltimore faces southpaw Nestor Cortes, who has pitched brilliantly at Yankee Stadium all season, with a 3.11 ERA and .229 OBA at home compared to a 4.46 ERA and .261 OBA in road starts. Conversely, Zach Eflin is getting overlooked as one of the best trade deadline acquisitions, as he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all eight of his starts with the Orioles. And in that span, Eflin has buckled down with runners on base, stranding an absurdly high 92.6% of runners, while leading all Orioles starters with a 1.07 BB/9 rate.
Entering Tuesday, the team total Under was 52-29 in Baltimore’s last 81 games and 27-17 in New York’s last 44, and I expect those trends to continue on what will be a cooler than usual night in the Bronx.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110)
New York Mets (+150) @ Atlanta Braves (-178) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)
The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for quite some time, and all of their starting pitching moves that they hoped to hit lightning in a bottle on like Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana have seemed to work. And while David Peterson has been on the roster longer than all of them and is arguably having the best year of the bunch, my money is backing Chris Sale, who may win the Triple Crown for NL pitchers this season.
Sale is a big reason that Atlanta’s pitching staff is one of two that has been better than New York’s since August 16. Sale leads the league in wins (18), ERA (2.38), strikeouts (225) and is sixth in WHIP (1.01). He should be backed with plenty of run support from a lineup that is excellent against southpaws, posting a 136 wRC+, 6.8% walk rate, and 23.6% strikeout rate in that split over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s bullpen entered yesterday’s series opener with a 3.35 xFIP over the last month, and will have its highest-leverage relievers ready to mop up what should be another dominant performance from Sale.
MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (+115)
Texas Rangers (-116) @ Oakland Athletics (-102) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Since they have been out of serious playoff contention for nearly the entire season, it is easy to overlook what the Oakland A’s have done since the All-Star Break. Oakland entered Tuesday 30-28 in the second half of the season, and that winning percentage was better than likely playoff-bound teams like the Guardians, Royals, Orioles, and Phillies.
While the A’s had a five-game home losing streak entering yesterday’s series opener against the Rangers, those losses came against the Tigers and Yankees, who were fighting for playoff spots and positioning. WIth motivation not being a factor at all against a Rangers squad that is eliminated from playoff contention, I expect Oakland to rally around this being its final home stand at the Coliseum, and to go out with a bang behind the arm of Brady Basso, whose transition to being stretched out to a starter has worked out well. Basso has allowed just three earned runs in his last 16 innings, and the southpaw’s elite 3.5% barrel rate plays well in any ballpark.
MLB Pick: A’s ML (+106)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.