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Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/3)

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Entering the first weekend of May, there has already been a lot of drama and some surprises around Major League Baseball. The Kansas City Royals were thought of as a team on the rise, but few could have predicted that the team would win 18 games before the calendar turned to May for the first time in franchise history. Conversely, the Houston Astros have made seven consecutive ALCS appearances, but are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs altogether this year after an 11-20 start. The Astros went 9-19 (.321) entering May, and only one team with a lower winning percentage since 1996 to that point in the season (the 2001 A’s) eventually made the playoffs.

Read on for our top MLB picks for Friday, May 3.

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    Friday's Best MLB Picks

    (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Colorado Rockies (+152) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) | O/U 8 (-120/-102) 

    The Pittsburgh Pirates get the benefit of a scheduling edge in this series opener coming off of an off day while the Colorado Rockies wrapped up a series against the Miami Marlins yesterday afternoon. Pittsburgh is 0-2 in games with a rest advantage this year, but went 3-1 in such games last year, and now face a Rockies team that became the first team since 1900 to have trailed at one point in each of their first 30 games of the season.

    Pittsburgh’s Martin Perez has been one of the best NL southpaws to this point, pitching to a 2.86 ERA and being on pace for an 18% strikeout rate or higher for the fourth time in the previous six seasons. His 5.7% barrel rate is also on pace to be his second-best over the last five seasons, and we do not expect a Rockies lineup that ranks in the bottom 11 in ISO and wOBA against left-handed pitching to do much damage against Perez. Conversely, Pittsburgh should find plenty of offense against Cal Quantrill, who has a career .467 winning percentage, 4.30 ERA, and 1.363 WHIP in road starts.

    Pittsburgh has covered the runline in just three of 11 games as favorites compared to 14 of 21 games as underdogs, but we are willing to buck this trend and fade the lowly Rockies.

    Bet: Pirates -1.5 (+122)

    Detroit Tigers (+142) @ New York Yankees (-168) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100) 

    The New York Yankees lost three of four important games against the Baltimore Orioles, as their offense was stagnant for six total runs in the series. We expect even more sluggishness in coming off a mentally draining four-game series against a team they figure to battle all season for the AL East title with, and Detroit Tigers righty Reese Olson has been impressive in his second year, only allowing a .238 xBA and .361 xSLG thus far. Olson’s stuff has fooled hitters often this season, as he ranks in the 84th percentile in chase rate and 73rd percentile in whiff percentage.

    The Yankees will look for a bounce-back effort from Marcus Stroman, whose command was off in issuing five walks and allowing four earned runs in his last start against the Milwaukee Brewers. However, the start before that, he struck out nine batters (his most since 2021), and given that Stroman allowed two or fewer walks in three of his other four starts this year, we are not as worried about his command in this home start. Detroit also ranks 17th in BABIP and 22nd in slugging against right-handed pitchers, so we do not expect it to do much damage on a cool night in the Bronx tonight.

    The Under is 4-5-1 in Detroit’s 10 games as road underdogs, and has cashed in nine of New York’s 13 home games, and we expect another low-scoring affair tonight.

    Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)

    San Diego Padres (-110) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-106) | O/U 9 (+100/-122) 

    The Dylan Cease acquisition thus far has paid huge dividends for the San Diego Padres, as Inside Edge pointed out that he has allowed a .198 OBP this season, the best among qualified starting pitchers. A big reason for that is his electric fastball which has been so far graded at 110 per tjStuff+, and is a pitch he is throwing 42.4% of the time this year. Cease should be in for another solid outing, especially since he has allowed a .182 batting average or lower on each of his top three primary pitches (fastball, slider, curve ball).

    Cease is opposed by Slade Cecconi, who has gone six innings and allowed three or fewer hits in each of his two starts this season. Cecconi induced a 31% whiff rate and 35% CSW% in his last start, with a 33% CSW% or better on his three primary pitches. Cecconi has a 12:0 K:BB ratio in his four career home appearances, and with opposing Padres hitters combining for just seven plate appearances against him, we expect him to have the upper hand the first couple of times through the batting order.

    Arizona has cashed the first five innings team total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 units, 10% ROI), and San Diego’s team total Under is 30-26 in its last 56 games. This has us limiting our best to the first five innings and taking bullpens out of the equation.

    Pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-114)

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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