Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/24)
The Philadelphia Phillies entered Thursday’s series finale against the Texas Rangers with an MLB-best 36-14 record, which was tied for the sport’s third-best 50-game start in the Wild Card era. One of the two teams that started better, the 1998 Yankees (37-13) went on to win the World Series, while the 2001 Seattle Mariners (38-12) lost in the ALCS. The Phillies also became just the 26th NL team to start 36-14 or better over the first 50 games in MLB history. Are their +750 odds (fourth-best in MLB) to win the World Series a bargain at this point?
Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
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MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday’s Best Bets
Here are our top three MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners (-148) @ Washington Nationals (+126) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)
The Seattle Mariners impressively split a four-game road series with the New York Yankees, despite playing three of those four games against them amid a 10-game stretch where Yankees starters pitched to a 1.01 ERA, the second-lowest in a 10-game span in Yankees history, per Katie Sharp. That is a testament to Seattle’s pitching staff that is one the best in baseball from starters to relievers, ranking in the top 9 in ERA and FIP (seventh in FIP, but sixth in xFIP).
One of the biggest contributors in the rotation has been George Kirby, who entered Thursday with an elite 0.80 BB/9 rate, and ranked second on the team only to Luis Castillo in K/9 (8.63), xERA (3.38), and xFIP (3.45). Though he makes batters put the ball in play often and has a relatively high .280 BABIP, he is inducing a lot of weak contact, as evidence by the fact that his xERA is 0.61 runs lower than his actual ERA.
On the other side, we also expect southpaw MacKenzie Gore to match zeros against a home run happy Mariners lineup, as his 0.8 HR/9 rate is on pace to be the best of his career. Consider this a contrarian play, as the Over was 8-2 in Seattle’s last 10 road games (+6.95 units/63% ROI) entering Thursday.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
San Francisco Giants (+118) @ New York Mets (-138) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)
The New York Mets have not been great against southpaws, as their 4-7 record against left-handed starting pitchers is the third-worst record among all NL teams. The Mets are slashing .224/.293/.351 with a .288 wOBA and a 90 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. And among all qualified hitters, only Starling Marte (.268) is batting better than .250 against southpaws, while he and Pete Alonso are two of three that are slugging .415 or better in that split. However, the trade-off is that those are the only two that also are striking out at least 23.9% of the time against southpaws.
Now New York faces hard-throwing Kyle Harrison, who has a 21.2% strikeout rate and ranks in the 96th percentile in Fastball Run Value, per Statcast. The Giants are also above .500 (20-18) against right-handed starting pitchers, but are a worse 5-8 in 13 games against southpaws, so we expect them to have success against Mets rookie Christian Scott, who is still looking for his first win in three career starts, and who does not keep many balls on the ground, sporting a ground ball rate that ranks in the 17th percentile.
The Mets have the rest advantage with yesterday’s off day, while the Giants were finishing their road series with the Pirates, but New York is just 1-3 since the start of last season in games where it has the rest advantage, and its .250 winning percentage in that split is the fourth-worst in the majors.
MLB Pick: Giants Moneyline (+118)
Baltimore Orioles (-270) @ Chicago White Sox (+220) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
The Baltimore Orioles’ streak of 106 series without being swept ended in St. Louis this week, and it was the longest streak in the majors dating back to 1944. However, many odd circumstances factored into those losses, with two lengthy rain delays in separate games, and the middle game of the series needing to be resumed in the sixth inning the next day.
Baltimore got back on track with a series-opening win against the Chicago White Sox, who have little offensive firepower in their lineup with Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez currently on the IL. We expect a stellar outing from ace Corbin Burnes, who ranks in the top fifth of the league in whiff rate, xERA, chase percentage, and ground ball rate. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been held to four or fewer runs in nine of the previous 13 games, but should break out offensively against Chris Flexen, who has one of the worst Stuff+ ratings (57) of any starting pitcher in baseball, thanks to a laughably low 10 rating on his fastball.
While the Orioles had covered the runline in exactly half of their last 38 games entering this series opener, they still returned a +2.85 units and 6% ROI to bettors, and we expect another big victory with a big starting pitching mismatch tonight.
MLB Pick: Orioles -1.5 (-160)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.