Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (6/3)
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees each made history over the weekend. The Phillies won for the 40th time in fewer than 60 games for the third time in franchise history, and now are tied for the second-biggest lead in any of the six divisions entering this week. Meanwhile, the Yankees won 21 games in May for the first time since 1956, and those winning ways spilled over into June with their three-game road sweep of the San Francisco Giants.
The Phillies are one of 16 teams in action today, while the Yankees get the day off, so which games have we identified to complete our trio of best bets?
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, June 3.
Monday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Mets (+104) at Washington Nationals (-122) | O/U 8.5 (+104/-128)
If only Major League Baseball contests were eight innings long, the New York Mets would be in a much better position in the standings. The Mets have lost six games since the calendar turned to May when leading after eight innings, and no other MLB team has lost more than two such games in that span. And while we expect the Mets to win this road series opener, we are limiting this wager to just the first five innings, as we want no part of sweating out their shaky bullpen in the late innings.
New York ranks sixth in hard-hit contact (36.0%) over the last two weeks, while Washington is 29th in the majors in that span (26.4%). The Mets also have the 11th lowest GB/FB rate in that span, and it is a good thing that they are elevating the baseball with such regularity, as their 15.5% HR/FB rate is second only to the Yankees. That should bode well for offensive success against Nationals southpaw MacKenzie Gore, who ranks in the 27th percentile in ground ball rate, and who is coming off a season where he allowed a 1.8 HR/9 rate. While Gore has pitched to a 2.40 ERA in three career starts against the Mets (all last season), he escaped several jams, as evidenced by his 1.467 WHIP, and we do not expect New York to be so unsuccessful with runners in scoring position in this divisional matchup.
The Mets have lost all three of Tylor Megill’s starts this year, but the team has produced just four runs of support for him in that stretch, and all three games were against first-place teams (Dodgers, Guardians, and Brewers). With Washington being such a huge step down in competition, we are taking advantage of this inflated line, and love the Mets as plus-money underdogs.
MLB Pick: Mets Moneyline (+104)
Baltimore Orioles (-112) at Toronto Blue Jays (-104) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)
The Baltimore Orioles have taken two out of three games from back-to-back AL East foes (Red Sox and Rays), and have gone 19 consecutive series without a loss against divisional opponents. Thus, we are getting great value on the Orioles as slight road favorites, especially with the Blue Jays’ struggling righty Kevin Gausman on the mound.
Gausman is the only one of the Blue Jays starters (min. six starts) with a negative WAR rating, as the metrics do not seem to value him much despite Toronto winning five of his last six starts. He has been able to pitch much more freely in May, as the team has averaged 7.2 runs per game in his five starts. However, we expect the Blue Jays to struggle offensively against Grayson Rodriguez, who ranks in the 80th percentile or better in whiff rate and strikeout percentage, and who has allowed a minuscule .225 xBA this season.
The Orioles owned the Blue Jays last season, winning 10 of the 13 meetings, and we expect them to get back to that dominance in this series opener.
MLB Pick: Orioles Moneyline (-112)
Cincinnati Reds (-134) at Colorado Rockies (+114) | O/U 10.5 (-110/-110)
The Cincinnati Reds have split their last six games which were against two of their biggest rivals (the Cubs and Cardinals), and we expect them to have a difficult time refocusing after a week of NL Central clashes.
The Colorado Rockies have played much better baseball of late, going 5-4 in a brutal nine-game stretch against three of the best teams in baseball (Phillies, Guardians, Dodgers). The Rockies have lost five of Ryan Feltner’s last six starts, but he has made quality starts in two of the last four, and his ERA and HR/9 rate are actually better at Coors Field than on the road this season.
The Rockies will look to improve to .500 at home (they have a dreadful .258 winning percentage on the road by comparison), and they are better against southpaws than righties, with a .714 OPS against left-handed pitching versus a .689 OPS against righties. Thus, we expect them to jump on Andrew Abbott, who has allowed at least one home run in six of his previous seven starts, and multiple home runs in four of eight. The Reds are also 2-6 in his last eight appearances, and we do not expect him to replicate his .206 OBA in hitter-friendly Coors Field.
MLB Pick: Rockies Moneyline (+114)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.