Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/17)
The New York Yankees have had plenty of iconic teams in their franchise history, but it feels like this year’s impressive start is going under the radar, largely because they are just one game ahead of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East.
The Yankees are riding a four-game winning streak, and have won 11 of their first 14 series for the eighth time in franchise history. So how do they factor into today’s MLB Top Picks column? Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
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Friday’s Best MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago White Sox (+220) @ New York Yankees (-270) | O/U 8 (-114/-106)
The Yankees have the best home winning percentage in the American League (.684) and now face a Chicago White Sox that seems destined to be their 12th victim in their first 15 series. Few pitchers have more egregious home/road splits than Yankees southpaw Nestor Cortes, who is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA at home and 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA on the road.
Cortes does a great job of keeping the ball in the yard when pitching at home, allowing two home runs in his 28 1/3 home innings to go along with a .162 OBA. He faces a White Sox lineup that ranks dead last among all AL teams in each slash line category against southpaws (.200/.261/.297), and one that hardly finds success on the rare occasions where they do put the ball in play against lefties (.252 BABIP ranks 27th).
This game has blowout written all over it, as the Yankees should find plenty of offensive success against Mike Clevinger, who has an awful 14.7 to 11.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio through two starts this season. While Chicago is 13-6 against the runline in its last 19 games (+6.25 units/26% ROI), we are backing New York on the alternate runline.
MLB Pick: Yankees -2.5 (+132)
Minnesota Twins (+100) @ Cleveland Guardians (-118) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
The Twins started their series against the Yankees with a solo home run from Ryan Jeffers in the first inning, then proceeded to not score a single run over the next 26. Minnesota finished the series 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position, and the loss to clinch the sweep was particularly painful, getting just one runner into scoring position all game and allowing Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt to throw a career-best eight innings.
Things do not get easier for the Twins when facing Cleveland Guardians righty Triston McKenzie, who has held current Twins hitters to a .179/.268/.352 slash line with 30.5% strikeout rate in 95 combined at-bats. McKenzie has been particularly tough on three of Minnesota’s most important bats, as he has held Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, and Willi Castro to a combined three hits in 43 at-bats, though two of those hits went for home runs.
Cleveland has had little difficulty winning games against teams that are over .500 this season, going 13-8 in such games, while the Twins are a much worse 9-14. Minnesota’s 12-game winning streak seems like a distant memory, and we expect the Guardians to improve to 12-4 since the start of the 2022 season when they have a rest advantage over their opponents (Cleveland was off yesterday).
MLB Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-118)
New York Mets (-120) @ Miami Marlins (-102) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)
After Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer were failed experiments in Queens last year, Christian Scott has represented an inspiring youth movement in the organization. The Mets have lost each of Scott’s two starts, but that was more a product of their offense scoring two total runs for him, as each of Scott’s first two outings have been quality starts. He has struck out 14 batters to go against three walks, and he generated 18 whiffs in his debut, and had solid 30.9% chase rates and 31.9% whiff rates in his second start.
Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo has struggled with a 5.97 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, but he was fantastic against the Mets last year, pitching to a 0.69 ERA and striking out 15 in 13 innings. And while the Mets rank 11th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers, they are 19th against southpaws, which has us expecting a pitcher’s duel despite New York cashing its team total Over in 21 of its last 33 games (+6.90 units/17% ROI).
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.