Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/31)
The last day of May has arrived, and it will be interesting to see what the Major League Baseball standings look like at the day’s end. Looking at the standings on June 1 provides interesting tidbits, as per Elias Sports Bureau data, 58% of teams (94/161) that were in sole possession of first place entering June 1 have gone onto win their division since 1995 (the wild-card era). Will that trend hold true this year?
Let’s dive into my top MLB picks for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
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MLB Picks & Predictions: Friday’s Best Bets
Here are our top three MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s slate of baseball games.
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays (+120) @ Baltimore Orioles (-142) | O/U 8.5 (-106/-114)
The Baltimore Orioles bashed their way to another series victory against an AL East opponent earlier this week, as they beat the Boston Red Sox in two out of three games to improve their record to 13-0-5 in their last 18 series against division rivals. The offense was the catalyst in their two victories, where they combined for 17 runs, including a six-run output in their series finale despite Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg receiving rare days off.
Baltimore has scored five-plus runs in half of its last 10 home games, and now faces Tampa Bay Rays righty Aaron Civale, who will likely be removed from the rotation if the likes of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Zach Eflin can all get healthy. Civale has made quality starts in just three of 11 appearances, and he is tied with Tyler Alexander for the worst WAR (-0.7) of any of Tampa Bay’s starting pitchers. Meanwhile, Baltimore is also using Albert Suarez as a fill-in (he has pitched in 11 games but made just four starts) while John Means, Tyler Wells, and Dean Kremer are all on the IL. That means we should see plenty of a Baltimore bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA (5.14) and 23rd in FIP (4.41) since mid-May. Thus, not only should Tampa Bay pile on runs late, but Baltimore has cashed its team total Over in six of its last seven games (+5.20 units/60% ROI).
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-106)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-102) @ New York Mets (-116) | O/U 7.5 (+100/-122)
The New York Mets are on the verge of an early-season implosion, falling to a season-worst 11 games under .500 after getting swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers (they are 23-33 after last night’s win over the Arizona Diamondbacks). They now face southpaw Jordan Montgomery, which does not bode well for New York’s chances of success, as it is just 4-9 against left-handed starting pitchers this year.
This is an excellent “get right†spot for Montgomery, who has pitched to a 4.69 ERA through seven starts. Positive regression should be looming for Montgomery, who ranks in the top-fourth of the league in barrels and hard-hit rate, and the top-third of the league in chase percentage. Meanwhile, the Mets are collectively slashing .223/.293/.351 with a 90 wRC+ versus lefties, compared to a .235/.308/.376 slash line and a 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
We also expect Arizona to have success against Luis Severino, who has not missed many bats this year (24th percentile in whiff percentage), and who has flirted with disaster with the second-highest walk rate of his career (10.6%) to this point. New York entered its series opener with Arizona with a 10-25 record in its last 35 games (-17.40 units/-44% ROI), and we expect the struggles to continue today.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-102)
New York Yankees (-136) @ San Francisco Giants (+116) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)
The Yankees’ Marcus Stroman signing went somewhat under the radar in the offseason, but it should have been considered a steal in hindsight, as Katie Sharp pointed out that he entered the season as one of four pitchers with 25-plus starts and a 110 ERA+ in each full season in 2019. She also pointed out how historic his first two starts as a Yankee were, as he joined Ramiro Mendoza (1999) as the only two Yankees pitchers of the last 50 years with zero earned runs and at least 12 innings pitched in their first two starts of the season.
Stroman is a big reason New York’s starting pitchers have gone a collective 17-5 with a 1.96 ERA, a .222 BABIP and a 2.54 BB/9 rate in May entering Thursday. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ home run prowess (five players are on pace for 20 or more home runs) should be limited at the cavernous and chilly Oracle Park, especially with flamethrower Jordan Hicks ranking in the 88th percentile in ground ball rate. Hicks has transitioned to the rotation nicely, as his .273 wOBA is on pace to be his best since 2019. And he has learned what it takes to be durable and give the team innings, as his average fastball velocity is 95.9 mph as opposed to the 100-plus mph he averaged each of the previous two seasons.
The Under was 33-23 in New York’s last 56 games entering Thursday despite its team total Over cashing in 32 of its last 57, but not only do we expect its offense to struggle in this road environment, we also expect Stroman to keep up the Yankees’ elite pitchin metrics.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-118)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.