Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/20)
The Atlanta Braves had been one of three MLB teams to avoid a three-game or longer losing streak this season, but that distinction ended on Sunday night with a 9-1 loss to the San Diego Padres. The Braves get two more cracks at the Padres today with a doubleheader to make up from Saturday’s rain out, so will they get back into the win column?
Favorites around Major League Baseball went 12-3 on Sunday, so it will be interesting to see if that MLB picks trend continues with today’s 12-game slate.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, May 20.
Monday’s Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Chicago White Sox (+164) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-196) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-104)
The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox have two of the three worst run differentials in the American League, and while the White Sox were just bludgeoned by a combined score of 17-5 in a three game sweep at the New York Yankees, they showed they have a long way to go offensively before they will become competitive.
Chicago has been held to three or fewer runs in 10 of its last 13 games, and should again be in for a rough day against Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios. Berrios has already been named AL Pitcher of the Month, and allowed just one hit outside of Adley Rutschman’s two home runs over seven strong innings in his last outing. Berrios got a disciplined Orioles lineup to chase on 25% of his pitches and to whiff 10.3% of the time, and we also expect the Blue Jays offense to struggle, especially since their games have seen seven or fewer runs scored in six of their last eight. White Sox righty Erick Fedde is on pace for the best ERA, strikeout rate, and walk rate of his career, and his 38.6% hard-hit rate would also be his lowest allowed over a full season.
The Under has cashed in 11 of Toronto’s 16 games as a home favorite, and we expect it to be the right side of the total in this series opener.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-104)
Minnesota Twins (-174) @ Washington Nationals (+146) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)
The Minnesota Twins at one point rolled off 12 straight wins this season, but now enter this series opener with six consecutive losses after getting swept by the Yankees and Guardians. The Twins have averaged just 1.5 runs per game in that span, and their overall offensive numbers are atrocious, slashing .175/.228/.250 with a 23.8% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate. However, we will gladly take the discounted runline when facing a southpaw Mitchell Parker, who ranks in the 21st percentile or worse in hard-hit percentage and whiff percentage.
Minnesota hits lefties well, ranking seventh in slugging and sixth in BABIP. It added such much needed right-handed pop in the lineup with Byron Buxton coming off the IL, and the Twins are a good bet to stop the bleeding with ace Pablo Lopez on the mound, as he has a 2.86 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in 22 career interleague starts. Lopez’s xERA (2.88) is much lower than his actual 3.93 ERA, and he has allowed an xBA of .199 or lower on three of his four primary pitches.
Minnesota is 9-3 as a road favorite this year, and is in a great spot to end its losing streak in a big way against a Nationals team that has lost five straight and two of their last 10.
MLB Pick: Twins -1.5 (+100)
Seattle Mariners (+116) @ New York Yankees (-136) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)
It will take a gargantuan pitching effort to snap the Yankees’ seven-game winning streak, especially in the Bronx where they have won eight of their last nine and outscored their opponents by 29 runs in the process. But that is exactly what we expect from Mariners righty Logan Gilbert, who is 24-6 in his career on the road with a 3.60 ERA.
Gilbert has won 13 games in back-to-back seasons, and already has lowered his hits per nine innings rate by 27.5% from last year’s impressive campaign. His 0.65 GB/FB ratio will come in handy in the small dimensions of Yankee Stadium, and we expect him to outpitch Marcus Stroman, whose walk rate and xERA are on pace to be the worst of his career.
The Mariners have done well to avoid lengthy losing streaks this season, going 14-7 SU after a loss. One would think the moneyline odds would be greater considering New York is 15-7 against teams over .500 this season, but this price comes with a hint that oddsmakers think the Yankees get picked off in this series opener with their most vulnerable starting pitcher toeing the rubber.
MLB Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+116)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.