Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/18)
We have a massive slate of games today. I’ve sifted through the stats and matchups, ultimately narrowing in on three wagers I’ll be playing throughout the day. Here are my top three MLB picks for Saturday’s slate of games.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals (+150) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-178) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
The Phillies earned a 4-2 win in last night’s series opener, moving to 32-14 on the season. The Nationals dropped to 20-23 with the defeat, putting them 10.5 games off of Philadelphia’s first-place pace. The two sides are back at it this evening at 6:05 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.
Philadelphia continues to be one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last month-plus, going 24-6 over their last 30 games. They’ve covered the run line (-1.5) in 18 of those 30 games, so it’s safe to say they’re crushing teams at the moment. I’m going to take a shot with the plus-money payout to say they secure a multi-run lead at home tonight. They have plenty of offensive firepower to get it done, especially considering they rank fourth in team batting average (.261) and third in OPS (.755) over the last 15 days.
Cristopher Sanchez gets the nod for the Fightin’ Phils. The left-hander has looked serviceable this year, coming in at 2-3 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. However, those numbers drop to 1.88 and 1.17 at Citizens Bank Park. The southpaw gets a favorable matchup at home against a Nats offense that has been one of the worst in the league over the last 15 days. During the timeframe, they’re 29th in team batting average (.209) and 30th in OPS (.622). The Phillies are primed for another big day at home, where they’re 17-8 straight up this year.
MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+118)
Milwaukee Brewers (+130) vs. Houston Astros (-155) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
The Brewers had their two-game win streak snapped last night, losing on the road against the Astros in a 5-4 contest. They’ll look to get back in the win column tonight when they send Bryse Wilson to the bump. The Astros counter with Justin Verlander in this interleague clash, which gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX.
These have been two of the better offenses in baseball this year, but I think we have a pitching matchup that has the potential to put each of these offenses in their tracks. Starting with Verlander, it looks like he’s finding his footing as he turned in a 7.0-inning scoreless outing last time out against the Tigers. This performance dropped his ERA and WHIP to 3.38 and 1.19, respectively. The 41-year-old veteran has cut down the Crew in the past, limiting the current roster to a slash line of .158/.190/.237 over 58 at-bats. That’s an OPS of just .427.
Wilson takes the ball for Milwaukee. The right-hander has been transitioning into the starting rotation over the last month. He’s made four straight outings, throwing at least 4.0 innings. He owns a 2.21 ERA over the 20.1-inning sample size. Overall this season, the 26-year-old has a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Interestingly, Wilson’s road splits show he’s limited the opposition to a batting average of just .164. Let’s take a flier on the under tonight in the Lone Star State.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)
San Diego Padres (+100) vs. Atlanta Braves (-120) | O/U 8.5 (-120/+100)
The Padres snapped a three-game skid last night, beating the Braves in a 3-1 contest. The second game of the series features a pitching matchup between Yu Darvish and Bryce Elder. The first pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA.
There is a ton of star power in this series, but the pitching won the day on Friday night in the 3-1 game. I think that’ll be the case again on Saturday, so I’ll play the under 8.5 runs. Darvish heads to the bump for the Friars and comes into this game 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The right-hander has been lights out over his last three outings, not surrendering a run over 17.0 innings. Furthermore, Darvish has a great track record against Atlanta, limiting them to a slash line of .163/.214/.272 over 92 at-bats. Considering his form and Atlanta’s recent offensive struggles, I think he’ll turn in another solid outing.
As for Elder, he’s still trying to find his groove this season, coming in at 1-1 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. However, the young right-hander has been electric at home, posting a 1.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 12.0 innings. We don’t have a huge head-to-head data set against San Diego, but Elder has held them to a slash line of .174/.240/.304 over 23 at-bats. I love the even-money payout that comes with the under in this spot.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: