MLB Picks & Predictions: Tigers vs. Guardians (Saturday)
We had an electric Game 5 out West last night, as the Dodgers edged out the Padres in a 2-0 contest, advancing to the NLCS to take on the Mets. Don't get too comfortable, because we're right back at it with another game five in the AL, as the Tigers (2-2) square off against the Guardians (2-2) in a winner-take-all matchup. The winner books a ticket to the ALCS, where the top-seeded Yankees are waiting.
Below I'll dive into the odds for game five, as well as provide my picks and analysis on both the side and total. Today's pitching matchup sees future Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal go toe-to-toe with Cleveland's Matt Boyd. First pitch is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH.
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Saturday's Best MLB Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (-124) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+106) | O/U 6.0 (-104/-118)
Well, the less confident of my two bets for Game 5 is the Guardians moneyline. I'm just never rushing to the window to fade a guy of Tarik Skubal's caliber. However, I am also not looking to lay a -124 vig with an inexperienced, road Tigers squad in an elimination game.
While the Tigers have caught fire over the last month-plus, this is still a bottom-tier offense overall. They're hitting just .226 in the postseason while logging a team OPS of .645. As for the regular season, Detroit was 24th in team batting average (.234) and 23rd in OPS (.685). I guess the point that I want to make is that I don't expect the Tigers to stretch out a big lead at any point in this game. As long as the Guardians can keep the game close, they'll have a chance to score late against the Tigers' inexperienced bullpen. As much of a beast as Skubal is, I just can't pass up a plus-money payout on Cleveland, who's home and more experienced in the playoffs.
Best Side Bet: Guardians Moneyline (+106)
I've been betting on sports for 15+ years, and I haven't seen too many MLB totals of 5.5 during that span. A few sportsbooks have 5.5s posted for this game, and I certainly can't blame them. Even at 5.5 runs, I'm still leaning Under. Luckily, we'll pick up an extra 0.5 runs at FanDuel Sportsbook, and that makes me much more confident to press that button and lock in the Under.
Let's bring it back to Skubal, who was clearly the best pitcher in the entire MLB this season. The left-hander went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA (2nd) and 0.92 WHIP (2nd) while amassing a league-leading 228 punchouts. His last five starts have all seen six or fewer runs, including a run of three straight with four or fewer runs. The southpaw has faced Cleveland twice this season (one reg, one post), holding them to one earned run over 14.0 innings pitched (0.64 ERA).
Then, these two dynamic bullpens will be working late in today's game. Cleveland's bullpen was the best in the entire MLB this year, ranking first in both ERA (2.57) and WHIP (1.05). Detroit was fifth (3.55) and second (1.14) in those respective categories. Emmanuel Clase (0.61 ERA) was essentially untouchable this year. I don't want to put the cart before the horse, but between Clase and Skubal, we should have 7.0 to 9.0 innings where the runs are extremely tough to come by. I'm not overthinking this one - give me the Under as my best bet in Game 5.
Best Total Bet: Under 6.0 Runs (-118)