Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/15)
Last Wednesday we were three outs away from a 3-0 sweep with our MLB picks, as the Detroit Tigers could not hold on to a 4-3 ninth inning lead to cash out bet of Under 8.0 runs. We are back to keep the momentum from last week, and have scoured the odds from a full slate of games to identify our three top MLB picks. Read on to find out which teams are involved in our top MLB picks for Wednesday, May 15.
Wednesday's Top MLB Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Mets (+154) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-184) | O/U 7.5 (-122/+100)
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies had a bit of a scheduling quirk, playing a day game in Queens yesterday just to resume the series a day later in Philadelphia.
The change of venue should seemingly do wonders for the Mets offense, as their 5.5 runs per game average on the road leads the majors. However, Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez is off to one of the best starts in MLB history, with seven wins (all quality starts) among his first eight outings and a league-leading 0.72 WHIP and top-three 1.50 ERA. Per OptaSTATS, Suarez is one of four pitchers in the modern era with a WHIP of 0.72 or lower over their first eight starts of the season, with the team going 8-0 in that stretch. However, he is the first to do so since 1908, and the other three pitchers on the list (Christy Mathewson, Addie Joss, and Mordecai Brown) are all in the Hall of Fame.
Suarez has allowed just four earned runs in his last 39 innings, and we have confidence in the back end as the Phillies bullpen ranks fourth in FIP and xFIP, and third in WAR.
Entering Tuesday, the Under was 59-47 in New York’s last 106 games (+14.50 units/12% ROI), and we expect Suarez and the bullpen to ensure the Mets offense is limited once again.
MLB Pick: New York Mets Team Total Under 3.5 (-138)
New York Yankees (-104) @ Minnesota Twins (-112) | O/U 8 (-108/-112)
If you had told anyone in the New York Yankees front office that the team would have a .651 winning percentage and be in first place in the AL East lead at this point of the season without ace Gerrit Cole pitching a single inning to this point, all would have likely gladly signed up for that. However, today’s starter Marcus Stroman has been by far the most vulnerable pitcher in the Yankees rotation, with just two of eight starts being quality starts, and him posting a team-worst WHIP (1.50), K/9 rate (8.4), and WAR (0.1).
Stroman’s numbers suggest he is in line for further regression, as his xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA, and his .433 xSLG is on pace to be the worst of his career. That is asking for trouble when facing a Minnesota Twins lineup that has averaged better than six runs per game during a 17-3 tear entering Tuesday while collectively slashing .284/.345/.489 and ranking in the top five with 27 home runs in that span. We also expect a solid outing from Pablo Lopez, who is on pace for career-bests in xwOBA (.255) and strikeout rate (31.6%), which is why his xERA (2.49) is much lower than his actual ERA (3.89).
MLB Pick: Twins Moneyline (-112)
Oakland Athletics (+205) @ Houston Astros (-250) | O/U 8 (-120/-102)
The Houston Astros were 14-25 over the weekend, and David Schoenfield’s article on ESPN stated that just one of the last 25 teams that started either 13-26, 14-25, or 15-24 (excluding the 2020 shortened season) finished with a winning record. However, an optimistic view on Houston’s start is that three playoff teams from a year ago (Tampa Bay, Miami, and Arizona) all had stretches of 14 or fewer wins over a 39-game stretch at some point last season, so perhaps there is hope for Houston after all.
The Astros should take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule with facing Oakland A’s righty Aaron Brooks, who was not even on the team’s 40-man roster last week. Brooks last pitched in the majors in 2022, but threw just 9 1/3 innings that year and had a 7.71 ERA. In eight Triple-A starts this year, Brooks has pitched to a 4.57 ERA and did not fool many hitters with a low 16.8% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Astros southpaw Framber Valdez is 5-2 with a 2.34 ERA in the last two seasons against Oakland, while pitching to individual WHIPs of 0.696 and 0.889 in those years.
Despite its struggles, Houston has still covered the runline in 52 of its last 100 games dating back to last season (+4.60 units/4% ROI), and this is an excellent spot facing an unproven pitcher to do so again.
MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 (-118)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.