Navigate

MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/5)

by |

We’ve got new matchups and all 30 teams playing games on tonight’s MLB slate.

The Cubs-Marlins game will be the appetizer. They’re the only game playing during the day. This is a tradition that the Cubs have had for a long time.

With that said, I’m looking at some player props to fire on tonight. Which prop will you be tailing?

Friday’s Best MLB Player Props

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Max Kepler Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) 

Peyton Battenfield will take the hill for the Guardians tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher holding a 4.67 ERA in four starts this season. Over the last 30 days, Battenfield has had a 6.63 xFIP, with 14.5% of batters getting walked.

His last 34 lefties have hit a .359 wOBA and ISO of .379.

Max Kepler is a lefty who is expected to lead off tonight. Kepler has hit a .277 ISO and wOBA of .402 against righties over his last 56 plate appearances. Kepler has also hit over 23% of line drives in those plate appearances against righties and should have multiple chances to do damage against Battenfield.

Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110) 

Matt Olson has hit a .294 ISO and wOBA of .394 against his last 83 righties faced. His walks are also high, but he’s hitting nearly 50% of fly balls and limiting ground balls against righties over the last 30 days.

Meanwhile, Kramer has a 5.07 xFIP over the same 30-day time frame. He’s not earning a high rate of strikeouts but has limited walks.

The last 54 lefties to face Kramer have hit a .445 wOBA and ISO of .220. Kramer has been solid against righties but struggling against lefties.

If he can limit walks and throw strikes, Olson should be able to take advantage of a pitch or two and earn multiple bases tonight.

Jordan Montgomery Over 5.5 Ks (-122) 

The Detroit Tigers are coming off a three-game series sweep over the Mets. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have put together the worst start in the National League.

But I still think the Cardinals can turn things around. It’s early enough. Jordan Montgomery’s analytics prove that he’s going to have success eventually.

Montgomery has had a 3.95 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s struck out nearly 23% of batters and has walked only 5.5%. Montgomery has also earned close to 50% of ground balls in those last 30 days and has limited extra-base hits against both sides very well.

The Tigers have struck out 26% of the time against lefties using the projected lineup. They’ve also hit an ISO of .093 as a lineup against lefties. I know Detroit showed off some power earlier this week. But it’s not realistic to think that they’ll be consistent in that department moving forward.

Montgomery has struck out nearly 26% of righties over the last 30 days. He’ll face eight righties in the Tigers’ lineup. Take his Over.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App