MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/23)
We’ve got a full slate of MLB games to look through tonight.
There are some solid weather spots and then other areas with some concerns. I’ll bet on three player props in areas where we’re guaranteed to get some baseball tonight.
Friday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Luke Raley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Zack Greinke will take the mound for the Royals tonight. He’s been fine against righties. However, he’s struggled against lefties throughout the entire season.
Lefties have hit a .246 ISO and wOBA of .379 against Greinke in 131 plate appearances. But in the last month, it’s been even worse. He’s given up a .333 ISO and wOBA of .420 to his last 35 lefties. He’s not earning a high rate of grounders and allows close to 29% of line drives in the last 30 days to lefties.
Luke Raley is a lefty, hitting a .314 ISO and wOBA of .455 against righties last month. Raley will likely bat in the two-spot and has smacked 52.8% of hard contact with nearly 28% of fly balls and line drives against righties in the last month.
This is a great spot for Raley to earn an extra-base hit tonight.
Christian Yelich Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
It hasn’t been the best season for Shane Bieber analytically. He’s earned just 16.8% of strikeouts over the last month and has only struck out 13.3% of lefties over his last 75 plate appearances against them.
On top of that, Bieber has given up a .200 ISO and wOBA of .377 to lefties in the last month while also allowing 28.6% of line drives. He’s also giving up 50% hard contact and rarely gets swinging strikes against lefties.
Christian Yelich will bat lead-off for the Brewers tonight. He’s a lefty, hitting a .212 ISO and wOBA of .392 against righties in the last month. Yelich has also limited strikeouts to 21.8% against righties. Bieber is no longer a true threat to earn strikeouts, especially against lefties.
Back Yelich to earn at least two total bases.
Brayan Bello Over 4.5 Ks (-170)
Brayan Bello has struck out just 20% of batters in the last month. That doesn’t seem so high. However, he’s struck out 25% of right-handed batters in the last month and has earned 26.5% of strikeouts against righties throughout the year.
The White Sox will have at least six righties in their lineup. Those righties have combined to strike out 24% of the time against righties in the last month. Bello has plenty of targets, including three batters that have struck out at least 30% of the time against righties.
The White Sox have also hit a wOBA of .294 and have walked just 5.5% of the time against righties. There’s a good chance Bello lasts beyond six innings against the White Sox tonight. He’s earned nearly 57% of ground balls and has limited fly balls and line drives to above-average numbers.
I’ll play it safe and grab his 4.5 number, but the 5.5 at +130 isn’t so bad, either.
Check out our other best bets for Friday:
- MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
- MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- WNBA Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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