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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (10/7)

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There was little drama in the four Wild Card round series of the Major League Baseball Playoffs, as all four ended in sweeps. The Arizona Diamondbacks were the only team to advance as underdogs, while six of the remaining eight teams won 90-plus games in the regular season.

With the four Wild Card round winners sweeping their way into the Divisional Series, that saved most teams’ rotations from having to burn through their top three starters last week.

In today’s best MLB player props, we clamor for a strong outing from a quasi-ace from one of the Wild Card winners while also backing a pitcher who knows a thing or two about pitching in the postseason.

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Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Justin Verlander Over 17.5 Outs Recorded vs. Twins (-165)

Justin Verlander gets the nod for the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the ALDS over Framber Valdez, and rightfully so, given his career 16-11 record and 3.64 ERA in the postseason (his 35 postseason starts are the most among active pitchers). The 40-year-old earned every bit of his six days rest after pitching to a 2.73 ERA over his final five regular-season starts as the team was involved in a three-way race with the Rangers and Mariners. He was especially clutch in his last two starts, pitching to a 0.69 ERA and recording 13 strikeouts while allowing just five hits. Verlander has been outstanding with six-plus days of rest in his career, as his .694 winning percentage (25-11 record), 2.90 ERA, .215 OBA and .623 OPS allowed are all better than his career numbers on four of five days of rest.

In today’s day and age of starters’ innings getting limited in the postseason, Verlander is an old-school innings eater with an old-school manager that will let him work. Verlander has thrown 207 2/3 innings in 35 career postseason appearances, which means he has recorded just under 18 outs every time out.

However, we do not expect the Minnesota Twins to incite many rallies, as three of their five runs this postseason have come on Royce Lewis home runs. Verlander has done an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard, as his 1.0 HR/9 rate was his second-lowest since 2016. He should be able to settle into a groove against a Twins lineup with the MLB’s highest strikeout rate this season (26.6%) and had the second-lowest team batting average (.243) among all playoff teams.

Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 Earned Runs vs. Dodgers (-125)

The Diamondbacks did well to get out of their Wild Card series against the Brewers in two games, as they are now lined up to throw Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen in four of the five potential games (each of their second starts would be on short rest) if needed. That cannot be understated, as they have no other healthy starting pitcher who posted an ERA under 5.00 in the regular season.

Los Angeles will surely be a popular play, given Kelly’s lack of success against the Dodgers. Over the last three seasons, Arizona is 1-12 in 13 games against the Dodgers when Kelly has pitched, and the righty himself is 0-10. In that span against 304 batters, he pitched to a 5.59 ERA and 1.77 WHIP while allowing a .915 OPS. In 241 combined at-bats against current Dodgers hitters, Kelly has allowed a .320/.385/.500 slash line, with seven Dodgers hitting for OPSs of .871 or better against the righty.

However, Kelly started turning a corner against the NL West rivals this year, as he did not allow a run in two of his four appearances. We believe in the rest-versus-rust factor that should give Arizona an advantage early in this series while the Dodgers will have had six days off. There is also a chance that Kelly gets pulled at the first sign of trouble. Despite the Diamondbacks ranking 17th or worse in ERA and xFIP this season, the team will need him for a second start on short rest if they do not bow out in three games.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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