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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/29)

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Rain is in the forecast for many games in the Northeast, but we focus our attention from a player prop perspective on three games that this inclement weather will not impact.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Saturday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Matt Chapman Over 0.5 RBI vs. Mariners

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Matt Chapman entered Friday ranked tied for first among all hitters (min. 70 PA) with a .458 BABIP and was first in xwOBA (.488) and wRC+ (208). Chapman has five home runs on the season (tied for the team lead), and though he has not homered in eight consecutive games, his second-ranked 1.111 OPS suggests he should not have a homerless drought much longer. However, the drought has not prevented him from driving in runs, as he has an RBI in two of the last four.

Chapman is 4-for-13 in his career against Seattle Mariners righty Chris Flexen, with two of the four hits being home runs. Thus, we are encouraged by Chapman’s 1.240 OPS against Flexen and that the righty’s 2.1 HR/9 rate is on pace to be his worst since 2018. It will not take a home run to record an RBI, with Chapman hitting in the prime spot of Toronto’s lineup, batting behind Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., making these plus-money odds all the more enticing.

Bet: Chapman Over 0.5 RBI (+115 at DraftKings) 

Corbin Burnes Over 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Angels

Milwaukee Brewers righty Corbin Burnes has made back-to-back All-Star Game appearances and finished in the top seven in the Cy Young Award voting each of the last three seasons. However, he has not pitched like the ace the team has been accustomed to this season, as he has a negative WAR and an ERA (4.55) on pace to be the second-worst of his career.

Burnes’ 7.2 K/9 rate is on pace to be the lowest of his career, as he has become much more of a one-pitch pitcher (50.8% cutter) than he was before this season. That change in arsenal has led to slightly worse command (49th percentile in walks) and produced fewer swings and misses (51st percentile in whiff percentage) than he has the last several years.

The Angels rank in the top 12 in BABIP (.300) in road games against right-handed pitching this year. And given Burnes’ declining strikeout numbers, we are less concerned about Los Angeles’ 12th-highest strikeout rate in the road vs. righties split. In addition, it is unclear if Burnes is fully recovered from a pectoral strain that had Milwaukee brass worried if he would miss his previous start.

The Brewers have allowed 16 runs in Burnes’ two starts they have lost (Milwaukee is 3-2 in his five starts overall). And given that Los Angeles has won four of five games in this rivalry and seven of ten in Milwaukee, we expect those trends to result in a successful day at the plate for the Angels.

Bet: Burnes Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+130 at DraftKings)

Marcus Semien to score a run vs. Yankees

The New York Yankees continue to trot out rookie Jhony Brito every fifth day entirely out of necessity, as Frankie Montas, Luis Severino, and Carlos Rodon still have yet to join the rotation. Unfortunately, Brito has not shown he deserves to be a part of the rotation, pitching to a 1.53 WHIP and 6.11 ERA and allowing 11 earned runs in his last 7 2/3 innings. 

Another successful offensive day should be in line for the Rangers, and that bodes well for leadoff man Marcus Semien’s chances to cross the plate. His 24 runs scored are three more than anyone else on the team. In addition, Semien is the only Rangers position player with a WAR above 1.0 (1.5). And with Texas’ team total set at O/U 4.5 runs, Semien is a great value play to score at least one run for the 14th time in the last 18 games.

The Over has cashed in 13 of Texas’s last 19 games, and if that trend continues today, we expect Semien to play a big part.

Bet: Semien to score a run (-110 at DraftKings)

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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