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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/13)

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A full 15-game Major League Baseball slate gives us plenty of betting opportunities, and our top wagers include two pitcher props and one batter prop.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Saturday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Dylan Cease Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Astros (+115 at DraftKings) 

Chicago White Sox righty Dylan Cease has not looked much like an ace recently, failing to win any of his last five starts, with the team going 1-4 in that span. Cease has allowed 20 earned runs in his previous 18 innings, and his strikeout rate (currently at 10.9 per nine innings) is on pace to decline for the third straight season. In Cease’s latest rough outing against the Kansas City Royals (seven runs allowed on nine hits over five innings), Cease induced just 12 swinging strikes on 64 total strikes.

This Houston Astros lineup is not as deep as recent years, but Cease has never been able to solve them, going 0-3 with a 5.13 ERA in five starts. And Houston still has the ninth-lowest strikeout rate in the league, so Cease is not as likely to record many punchouts as he is accustomed to. Cease has not topped six strikeouts in any of his last six starts, and being one of two White Sox starters with a negative WAR does not inspire confidence heading into this start.

Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 total bases vs. Red Sox (-105 at DraftKings)

This St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox matchup has the highest projected total of any non-Coors Field game played today, and what better way to bet a batter prop in this game with last year’s MVP?

Paul Goldschmidt dominated lefties last season, leading the league by a wide margin with a .411 batting average and 1.327 OPS against southpaws, and was the only player with a wRC+ of higher than 214 (his was 266) in such splits. While we are typically more encouraged by batters who have seen the opposing pitcher, we are not discouraged that this is Goldschmidt’s first time facing Chris Sale, considering he is slashing .361/.378/.583 against southpaws this season.

Goldschmidt has 2+ total bases in five of the last eight games, and the man with the third-most total bases in the majors (83) should again exceed this projected total.

Bryce Elder to record a win vs. Blue Jays (+210 at DraftKings)

The Braves are an MLB-best 15-4 on the road this season (no other NL team is more than two games over .500 on the road) and are a perfect 4-0 as road underdogs. They now send youngster Bryce Elder to the mound, who leads all Braves starters in WAR, and is second in WHIP (1.11) and innings pitched (41.1). Four of Elder’s seven starts have been quality starts, and the team is 6-1 in that span. Thus, with Atlanta having an excellent chance to win outright, we cannot pass up the value for Elder to record the victory.

Per Inside Edge, Elder has not allowed a hit on a slider since April 21st. He has not allowed a hit on a breaking pitch in the last 29 at-bats, the longest active streak in the majors.

While Toronto Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios has a career .647 winning percentage and 3.57 ERA at home versus a .484 winning percentage and 4.97 ERA on the road, we are still skeptical about his ability to navigate a powerful Braves lineup, considering he ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in xBA and xSLG.

The Blue Jays are 4-0 in Berrios’ last four interleague starts, and Toronto has won seven consecutive head-to-head meetings with Atlanta. However, we are still bucking these trends and hoping for a big payout.

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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