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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/6)

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Two consecutive profitable days from Tuesday’s and Thursday’s player prop picks have us rolling into the weekend with plenty of momentum.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Saturday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Bailey Falter Over 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Red Sox

It is fairly simple to predict the success of the Boston Red Sox this season. The Red Sox are 17-3 when scoring 5+ runs but 2-11 when scoring four or fewer. Boston is an underdog in a game with a projected total of 9.5 runs. Still, we are not worried about its chances of offensive success, considering Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Bailey Falter has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts, and the team is 0-4 in that stretch.

Boston entered Friday ranked first in the majors in hits and doubles, second in batting average, on-base percentage, and runs, third in slugging and OPS, and fifth in home runs. The Red Sox also began the weekend tied for the third-best runline record (14-6) when underdogs this season, and we are hoping that trend means they are in line to stay within one run in a high-scoring game. 

The Over is 4-1-1 in Boston’s last six against NL East opponents and has cashed in four of its last six road games, which bodes well for its chances of plating runs against Falter.

Bet: Falter Over 2.5 earned runs (+100 at DraftKings) 

Spencer Strider Over 8.5 strikeouts vs. Orioles

Spencer Strider is still the favorite at DraftKings (+250) to win the NL Cy Young Award, despite allowing a season-high four earned runs in his previous start against the New York Mets. However, the outing could not be considered poor since he still earned the victory and struck out eight batters.

Strider’s swing-and-miss stuff is elite, considering his eight strikeouts were a season-low among his six starts. In the process, he snapped a nine-game streak with 9+ strikeouts, which ended two shy of the MLB record. 

We should not be too alarmed by the four earned runs Strider allowed, considering it was likely a product of unusual circumstances. Strider made that start on six days’ rest after his regularly scheduled start was pushed back twice because of rain. In addition, he was facing a division rival for the sixth time in his career, but this will be the first time the Orioles lineup has ever seen his impressive arsenal. Thus, even though Baltimore collectively has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate (21%), Strider should still dominate the first couple of times through the lineup. In addition, pitch count is rarely an issue for Strider, as manager Brian Snitker allowed his young ace to gut through a season-high 107 pitches, and he is the only Braves starter to average over 100 pitches per start (100.2). 

Bet: Strider Over 8.5 strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases vs. Mariners

Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez has just one game in the previous six with driving in at least one run, so we do not want to rely upon other Astros hitting above him in the lineup to get on base. However, we still expect offensive success for Alvarez against Seattle Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales, against whom he slashes .438/.476/.875 in 16 career at-bats. 

Gonzales has struggled mightily with Houston in his career, going 2-9 with a 4.89 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts). As a result, the Astros are one of two teams that Gonzales is more than one game under .500 against in his career. Gonzales’s ERA+ and WHIP have not been this bad since 2017, so Alvarez and his team-leading .914 OPS should find a way to record at least two total bases in a favorable matchup.

Bet: Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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