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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/22)

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Multi-home run games were a big storyline in yesterday’s Major League Baseball action. Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Henry Davis became the first player to ever hit two home runs off of Shohei Ohtani in a game, and Juan Soto recorded his 14th game with 2+ home runs of his career, eighth-most of any player before turning 25, per Sarah Langs. We back one hitter’s prop today, while also looking at two strikeout totals from AL pitchers.

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Rangers (+150) 

Since July 4, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in baseball (9-2) and rank in the top two in the majors in wRC+, OPS, ISO, and walk rate. That is a big reason the Dodgers are averaging 6.9 runs per game over their last 12 games and why they are road favorites against a first-place team and a starting pitcher having the best year of his young career.

Dane Dunning ranks seventh in the majors in ERA (2.82) but could be in for a rough outing in a game with a lofty total (9.0 runs). Per Tomcat Trends, the Rangers are 5-15 SU since 2021 in Dunning’s starts as underdogs against non-divisional opponents, so we are excited to back one of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ best hitters today.

Freddie Freeman has never faced Dunning, but he bats behind Mookie Betts, who has homered in one of two career at-bats against him. Freeman ranks in the top four in the majors in batting average (.322) and OPS (.970), and his average and OBP are 21 and 45 points better against right-handed pitchers than southpaws. But given that Freeman’s slugging percentage is 156 points lower against righties than lefties, we are more comfortable backing his chances to drive in a run (something he has done in five of the last 10 games) than his total bases prop.

James Paxton Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Mets (-105)

Boston Red Sox southpaw James Paxton was considered by many as a sell-high candidate after winning AL Pitcher of the Month honors in June, and his two July starts so far have proven those critics right. Paxton has an ERA of 8.00 this month, but the most concerning is his lack of strikeouts. Paxton has recorded four or fewer Ks in three of his last four starts after starting the year with 5+ strikeouts in each of his first seven. 

The New York Mets have been awful against left-handed starters this year (10-21 overall record against southpaws), especially lately, ranking 27th or worse in wRC+ and batting average against southpaws in July. However, this still feels like an inflated number for Paxton’s strikeout total, and in a game tied for the highest-projected total on the day’s slate, a short outing for Paxton may be in order and kill his momentum for picking up strikeouts before it gets started.

Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts vs. Twins (-155)

The Minnesota Twins split a four-game road series with the Seattle Mariners but made history in a negative way in the process, as Seattle’s organization explained on Twitter.

These issues for the Twins have been around all season, as they have the worst strikeout rate in the majors (27%), and is still high at 26.7% since July 1, despite hitting the fifth-most home runs in the league in that span entering Friday.

Dylan Cease ranked fifth in MLB in strikeout rate last season (30.4%), but many were worried when he finished May with a more modest 24.2% K rate. However, Cease has reverted back to last year’s form, ranking in the top five among all qualified starting pitchers with a 12.2 K/9 rate since June 1 while striking out 6+ batters in seven of eight games. Cease is still creating swings and misses at an elite rate (82nd percentile), and the fact that his xSLG on the two pitches he throws more than 40% of the time (fastball and slider) is better than his actual slugging percentage allowed suggests that Cease should continue his positive regression, starting with a solid outing against the first-place Twins.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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