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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (8/26)

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We have egg on our face from our Thursday pick of J.P. France allowing Under 2.5 earned runs against the Boston Red Sox, as the Houston Astros’ 17-1 loss was tied for their worst in franchise history. As bad as that pick was, we rebounded with a three-hit day from Adley Rutschman, who we projected to go Over 1.5 total bases. We also got this performance from Merrill Kelly after expecting him to allow Under 2.5 earned runs.

Which three MLB player props at plus-money odds do we like best today?

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Wilmer Flores Over 1.5 total bases vs. Braves (+130) 

ESPN ran an interesting article this week about how the Giants remain in the thick of the National League playoff hunt despite a lack of star power and severe offensive woes. Flores may not be a household name to the casual baseball fan. Still, he punishes left-handed pitching, and we expect him to be involved in whatever offense the Giants produce against Braves southpaw Max Fried.

It is no secret that Oracle Park suppresses runs, ranking as the third-worst stadium of all host venues this weekend with a -5 % run adjustment, per Ballpark Pal. And while the Giants rank 26th in the majors in wRC+ in home games against left-handed pitchers this year, Flores’ prowess against lefties should come through today.

Flores leads all Giants hitters with a .341 average and .966 OPS against southpaws, and his 73 total bases are 28 more than the next closest hitter. While Flores is a slightly worse 5-for-18 against Fried, he was scalding hot with a .364/.481/.636 slash line in a seven-day stretch entering Friday, and produced multi-hit games in three of his last five overall, with two home runs in that span.   

Alex Bregman Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Tigers (+230)

Bregman has been one of the Astros’ most productive hitters over the last week, entering Friday with ten hits in his last 27 at-bats and a team-high .485 on-base percentage over the previous seven days. Bregman’s 17 total bases in that span were second on the team, and though he had just four RBIs in that span, he spaced them out over four different games, making him profitable in terms of his RBI props.

Bregman is batting .300 with two home runs and a 1.014 OPS in 20 career at-bats against Tigers southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez. And while Rodriguez has won five of his previous seven starts, he has been much tougher on left-handed hitters than righties.

Rodriguez has allowed a .160 OBA and induced twice as many ground-ball outs as air outs to lefties but a .246 and 0.69 GO/AO ratio to righties, so Bregman’s ability to elevate Rodriguez’s pitches should fare well for his chances to drive in a run.

Tyler Glasnow Under 1.5 earned runs vs. Yankees (+105)

The Yankees vs. Rays matchup has the lowest total (7.5 runs) of any game on Saturday’s slate, even though it is up from yesterday’s opening number of 7.0. And with the Rays being steep -192 Moneyline favorites, we expect a dominant pitching performance from Tyler Glasnow, their best healthy pitcher.

Glasnow has long been successful against New York, holding current Yankees hitters to a .200/.278/.286 slash line in 65 combined at-bats. New York’s offense heated up towards the end of a recent six-game homestand, with 5+ runs scored in three of its last four.

The Yankees have been held to three or fewer runs in 11 of their last 15 road games, as an offense that is so predicated on home runs ranks 26th in HR/FB rate in road games since the All-Star Break. Glasnow will also be pushed to match zeros with Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt, who ranks in the top four of all MLB starting pitchers with 20 starts of three or fewer runs allowed.

The Over is 8-0 in Tampa Bay’s last eight games against AL opponents, but we expect Glasnow to do his part in ensuring the Under cashes by keeping the Yankees off the scoreboard.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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