MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/16)
From a player prop perspective, it is unclear how long we will go without seeing Atlanta Braves slugger Ronald Acuna Jr., as he left yesterday’s game against the Miami Marlins with calf tightness. Before the injury, Acuna made history, per StatsCentre, but he does have odds listed at DraftKings for his player props today, so perhaps the injury is not too serious.
Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
George Springer Over 0.5 runs scored vs. Red Sox (+100)
There was a time when opposing Boston Red Sox southpaw Chris Sale in any way was risky. And while his OBA against right-handed batters is 34 points lower than against lefties, we cannot ignore Toronto Blue Jays leadoff hitter George Springer’s stretch of hot hitting.
Per Sportsnet Stats, Springer slashed .246/.314/.380 through the first 103 games, but turned it up over the last 36 entering Friday, slashing .302/.389/.489. Despite not scoring a run over the previous six games, Springer has scored at least one run in six of 14 September games. He is 7-for-25 with a .321 wOBA against Sale, and Sale has pitched to a 5.17 ERA in his last seven starts. The lefty is on pace for his worst walk rate and ERA in eight seasons, so expect Springer to find his way on base often and to work his way into crossing the plate at least once.
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Nationals (+180)
The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off back-to-back series wins against the New York Yankees and Miami Marlins, and they played much of that stretch without leadoff man Christian Yelich, who sat out most of the week with back stiffness. However, Yelich returned to the lineup yesterday, and we are confident he is healthy as the Brewers would likely not risk further injury as they have a comfortable lead in the NL Central.
There is no denying Yelich’s poor career numbers against Washington Nationals righty Trevor Williams (2-for-17 with eight strikeouts). However, this wager is more of a fade of Williams, who has allowed 14 earned runs and 20 hits in his last 8 1/3 innings and has pitched to a 7.31 ERA and a .320 OBA since the All-Star Break. Williams’ hard-hit rate allowed has increased from one year to the next six times in the last seven seasons, with this year’s 38.5% rate on pace to be the worst of his previous eight seasons.
An O/U of 8.0 runs is high, with Corbin Burnes toeing the rubber for Milwaukee, which means oddsmakers likely believe the Brewers are in for a big day offensively. We expect Yelich to be heavily involved in that success.
Andrew Abbott Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Mets (-160)
The New York Mets are coming off a successful series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, winning three of the four games and out-scoring them by 18 runs. The most impressive part was the damage they did to the Diamondbacks’ top two starting pitchers, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, who they tagged for a combined 13 earned runs in 10 innings. However, the Mets have hit right-handed starting pitchers much better than lefties this season, as evidenced by their 54-49 record against righties and 14-30 record against southpaws, the second-worst winning percentage against southpaws in the majors.
Cincinnati Reds lefty Andrew Abbott will likely appreciate the seven days of rest he was given after his last start, where he allowed six earned runs in four innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. Abbott’s OBA and WHIP are up to .248 and 1.36 post-All-Star Break compared to .192 and 1.03 in the first half of the season. However, we expect him to dominate a Mets lineup that ranks bottom 10 in wRC+ and 29th in BABIP (.276) against southpaws.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.