Navigate

MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/2)

by |

Though we went just 1-1 with Thursday’s two player prop selections, we profited +2.8 units thanks to Ronald Acuna Jr. hitting a home run and becoming the first player with a 30 home run/60 stolen base season in MLB history. Mookie Betts was not outdone in that series opener, blasting two home runs and driving in four runs of his own, making for what should be a fascinating MVP race down the stretch.

Which MLB player props do we like best today?

Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 total bases vs. Athletics (-120) 

Los Angeles Angels slugger Shohei Ohtani has hit safely in eight of his last nine games, but we cannot help but be concerned about his hitting outlook for the rest of the season after being shut down from pitching with a UCL tear. While Ohtani is 8-for-22 with three doubles since the injury, he has also walked seven times, as teams are pitching to him less with Mike Trout not in the lineup to protect him. Ohtani’s slugging percentage has decreased drastically over the previous three months, from .952 in June to .705 in July and .579 in August.

If Ohtani does hit safely again, this may be a risky play, as nine of his last 14 hits have gone for extra bases. He has also had success against Oakland Athletics righty Paul Blackburn, going 4-for-8 with a home run and a .556 wOBA. However, while Blackburn has allowed a .297 OBA against left-handed hitters this season, he has surrendered just one home run and 15 total extra-base hits in 145 at-bats. In addition, we are backing him amid his hottest streak of the season, as he has pitched to a 2.36 ERA over his last seven starts, with six or fewer hits allowed four times in that span and quality starts in five of his previous six. 

Blake Snell Under 1.5 earned runs allowed vs. Giants (-115)

Much of the attention in the pitching matchup in this game is focused on San Francisco Giants lefty Kyle Harrison, who became the first starting pitcher in franchise history to strike out the first five batters of a game since 2009. In addition, he was the second starting pitcher this century in MLB to have 10-plus strikeouts in his second career start. Thus, San Diego Padres southpaw Blake Snell is going largely unnoticed in a game we expect him to dominate.

Since July 1, the Giants have the second-worst strikeout rate (28.6%) in road games against left-handed pitchers. Snell should have little issue navigating a lineup that also ranks 29th or worse in wRC+, OPS, and wOBA in that split. The southpaw has the second-lowest ERA (2.12) and fifth-lowest OBA (.177) of any starting pitcher since the All-Star Break (min. 30 IP) and has had great swing-and-miss stuff with eight-plus strikeouts in four of his previous six starts.

Yusei Kikuchi to record a win vs. Rockies (OFF)

The Toronto Blue Jays have back-to-back games for the first time in an 11-game span, and their overall lack of momentum has dropped them 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot. However, when the Blue Jays win, they typically win big, out-scoring their opponents by three or more runs in their last six victories.

Blue Jays southpaw Yusei Kikuchi has only lost once in his last nine starts and pitched to a 2.41 ERA over his previous seven, with four quality starts in that span. Kikuchi has an 8.98 K/9 rate in his road starts this year, and he faces a Colorado Rockies lineup that is the worst in wRC+ (64) against left-handed pitching in home games this year. To put that poor number into perspective, the 15-run gap between them and the next-lowest team (the Cleveland Guardians, with a 79 wRC+ in that split) is bigger than the gap between the Guardians and the 24th-ranked team.

Kikuchi is opposed by Rockies southpaw Ty Blach, whose 5.88 xERA is much worse than his actual 3.94 ERA. In addition, Blach ranks in the lowest percentile in xBA, xBA, and whiff percentage, so we expect him to allow most of the runs in a game with a 12-run total.

Colorado has covered the run line in 43.1% of its home games this year (28-37), while Toronto is covering at over a 50% clip (50-48) in non-division games, so Kikuchi should have a decent cushion to exit the game with a lead and go onto eventual victory. DraftKings only has odds for Ty Blach’s chances to record a win tonight, but based on the +475 price, we would expect to get Kikuchi at closer to even money when the odds become available. If bettors consider the price too steep eventually, they could compare its value to Toronto’s -125 run line odds.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App