MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/23)
High winds and rain are expected to impact several games up and down the East Coast on Saturday. So we are turning our attention with our player prop picks to three plus-odds plays in games involving other areas of the country, especially those in the Midwest, the West Coast or those played indoors.
Saturday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sonny Gray Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed vs. Angels (+120)
The Minnesota Twins clinched the American League Central division with yesterday’s win over the Los Angeles Angels, so we expect them to sit many of their regular hitters after yesterday’s celebration. However, that does not mean that starting pitcher Sonny Gray is impacted at all, and we expect him to keep pitching like the player who will earn some Cy Young votes behind inevitable winner Gerrit Cole.
When comparing Gray to Cole, the Twins’ righty has a comparable ERA (2.84 to Cole’s 2.75) and ERA+ (152 to 157). However, Gray’s 2.85 FIP leads the league by a wide margin. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks 15th or worse in wRC+, OPS and BABIP in road games against right-handed pitching since mid-August and has the fourth-highest strikeout rate in that split. Gray has made nine quality starts in his last 11 outings and has pitched to a minuscule 1.85 ERA in his previous seven starts, which gives us great confidence with this wager.
Kevin Kiermaier Over 0.5 Runs Scored vs. Rays (+185)
Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Kiermaier returns to Tropicana Field, where he spent the first 10 seasons of his career, and we expect him to keep swinging his hot bat while helping the team improve its playoff positioning.
Among Blue Jays hitters with 20-plus at-bats, Kiermaier leads the team with a .855 OPS in September and is slashing .280/.315/.540 this month. Kiermaier’s current .270/.327/.429 slash line is the highest in all three categories since 2017, and his strikeout rate is on pace to be his best since 2016. Kiermaier’s batting average is 56 points higher on the road than at home this season, and he does not mind hitting at the bottom of the lineup, with BABIPs of .346 and .339 while batting eighth or ninth, respectively, this season.
He has never faced Rays righty Zack Littell in his career, but with his propensity for getting on base, we have confidence in the top of the Blue Jays lineup (George Springer, Bo Bichette, etc.) to plate him at least once today.
Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Cardinals (+140)
St. Louis Cardinals righty Jake Woodford opens today, and he has not completed three innings in seven appearances since May 4. So note that the San Diego Padres hitters will likely be taking many at-bats against other Cardinals pitchers. However, given Woodford’s .333 OBA and 1.71 WHIP when facing left-handed hitters this season, we are backing Padres slugger Juan Soto to drive in at least one run, as he has been on a tear this month.
Soto has a 1.129 OPS and a .333 batting average this month, with a whopping 21 RBIs. For context, only three Padres hitters have 10-plus RBIs in September. He has been a catalyst of an offense that ranks in the top three in the majors in wRC+, OPS and wOBA this month.
San Diego has cashed its team total Over in 13 of its last 19 games (+6.53 units, 29% ROI), and we expect Soto to be a big reason why that trend continues tonight.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.