Top 6 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/17)
Saturdays in the fall are usually stacked with sports and today is no exception with a full slate of college football, 17 games in the MLB, soccer across Europe and a UFC Fight Night at the Apex. From a betting standpoint, I’m still locked in on the diamond and I’ve narrowed in on these six player props for today’s action.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Shane Bieber O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
The Guardians try to move closer to securing an A.L. Central title as they turn to Shane Bieber this afternoon in game one of their doubleheader with the Twins. Minnesota counters with Louie Varland in this divisional clash set for 1:10 p.m. ET from Progressive Field.
Bieber has really been finding his groove recently and comes into today’s game at 10-8 with a 2.91 ERA (13th) and 1.06 WHIP (16th) over 27 starts this season. The right-hander just faced the Twins on Sunday and limited them to one earned run on five hits and a walk over 6.1 innings. He struck out seven batters in the winning effort.
This will be the third time this season that Bieber has faced the same opponent in back-to-back starts. In both of those outings against the Tigers and White Sox, he saw pretty substantial dips in punchouts. Back in May against Detroit, he struck out 10 in the first game and only five the next time out. As for Chicago in July, it was seven in game one and only four in the following outing. I’m going to ride that trend and take the under on 6.5 strikeouts for Bieber today. It’s also worth noting that Minnesota has the 13th-lowest K% this year at 22.0%. They should be able to hold their own this afternoon and at least put the ball in play.
Bet: Shane Bieber Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-165 via DraftKings)
Paul Goldschmidt O/U 1.5 Total Bases
The Reds and Cardinals have split the first two games of their five-game series in St. Louis this weekend. These N.L. Central foes will play twice today and Cincinnati goes with Mike Minor in the first game while St. Louis opts for Dakota Hudson. Game one is set for 1:15 p.m. ET from Busch Stadium.
Minor has not been great this season and comes in at 4-11 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over 18 starts. The southpaw faced the Pirates in his last start and was tagged for six runs (four earned) on seven hits and three walks over 5.0 innings of work. Minor was saddled with the loss and the Reds are now 3-12 in his last 15 starts.
Two of the starts over that stretch have been against the Cardinals and they’ve rocked him this season. Minor owns a 7.27 ERA and 2.08 WHIP over 8.2 innings against St. Louis this year.
Specifically, I’ll be keying in on the N.L. MVP in this matchup in Paul Goldschmidt (-2500 via DraftKings). The star first baseman is hitting .326 (2nd) on the year with 35 home runs (6th) and an OPS of 1.020 (3rd). As for the head-to-head numbers, Goldy is 9-15 (.600) against Minor with three home runs and a double. Let’s lock in his over on total bases this afternoon.
Bet: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105 via DraftKings)
Nolan Arenado O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Moving down the lineup a spot, I’m going to take the over on Nolan Arenado’s total bases as well. The star third baseman comes into today’s game hitting .299 (13th) with 29 longballs (15th) and an OPS of .912 (12th). He’s seen Minor well throughout his career, going 5-15 (.333) with two big flies and a double.
Bet: Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120 via DraftKings)
Tyler O’Neill O/U 1.5 Total Bases
I want to roll with one more Cardinal in this matchup and that’ll be Tyler O’Neill. The outfielder is hitting just .228 this season with 14 homers (108th) and an OPS of .700. O’Neill has gone 6-10 (.600) against Minor in his career with three yabos and a double.
If Minor’s able to turn in a respectable outing this afternoon, there will still be opportunities late in the game as the Reds bullpen is very weak. They rank dead last in the Majors in bullpen ERA (4.75) and 29th in WHIP (1.43). Look for these three sluggers to get plenty of opportunities to clear 1.5 total bases in game one.
Bet: Tyler O’Neill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120 via DraftKings)
Yoan Moncada O/U 1.5 Total Bases
The White Sox dropped a must win game last night in their series opener with the Tigers. They’re now 4.0 games behind the Guardians in the A.L. Central and are running out of time to close the gap. Chicago will go with Johnny Cueto in game two of the series while Detroit counters with Eduardo Rodriguez in this divisional showdown slated for 6:10 p.m. ET from Comerica.
Rodriguez has now made five starts since returning from the restricted list in August. He has not been very serviceable as he’s posted a 7.31 ERA in September and Detroit has dropped all three starts. Most recently, the southpaw was tagged for five earned runs on 10 hits and a walk over 5.0 innings against the Astros.
Despite a very underwhelming offensive season for Chicago, one trend has held up and that’s that they crush left-handed pitching. The Sox rank first overall in team batting average (.283) against LHP and second in OPS (.799). As for the head-to-head numbers, this Chicago roster has slashed .269/.329/.433 against Rodriguez throughout his career. Yoan Moncada is one of the top hitters against him, going 4-10 (.400) with a home run. I’m going to take his over on total bases in a game that Chicago absolutely needs to have.
Bet: Yoan Moncada Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145 via DraftKings)
Eloy Jimenez O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Keeping it in the same game, I’m going to take the over on Eloy Jimenez total bases also. The DH has gone 2-4 (.500) against Rodriguez with a double in his career. Jimenez, when healthy, has been the best hitter on the Whiet Sox. He comes into this game at .310 with 13 longballs and an OPS of .883.
Bet: Eloy Jimenez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 via DraftKings)
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