Top 5 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, PIcks & Predictions: Sunday (10/2)
It’s a stacked Sunday in sports, with the MLB offering up a full 15-game slate while the NFL and big European soccer leagues are also in action. Let’s get right into it. Here are my top five player props for today.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Rhys Hoskins O/U 1.5 Total Bases
The Nationals try to salvage a series split this afternoon as they take on the Phillies in the City of Brotherly Love. They’ll turn to Patrick Corbin in an attempt to play spoiler to Philly, who currently resides 1.0 game ahead of the Brewers in the N.L. Wild Card standings. Philadelphia counters with Zack Wheeler in this divisional clash set for 1:35 p.m. ET.
To put it bluntly, Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last two years. I love when his name pops up on the probable starters list. The southpaw comes into today’s game at 6-18 with a 6.08 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over 30 starts. This will be Corbin’s first start since September 20th, when he exited after 0.2 innings against the Braves with an injury.
Corbin made four starts in September, posted a 3.10 ERA, and gave up 20 hits over 20.1 innings pitched. One of those starts was against the Phillies, who torched him for five earned runs on 12 hits over 6.2 innings. In three starts against Philadelphia this season, Corbin owns a 10.97 ERA and 2.62 WHIP, and they’re hitting .455 against him.
Rhys Hoskins has had his number throughout his career, going 11-33 (.333) with four home runs and four doubles. The star first baseman is hitting .251 (80th) on the year with 30 long balls (20th) and an OPS of .808 (37th). Let’s lock in his over on total bases with an even-money payout.
Bet: Rhys Hoskins Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 via DraftKings)
Bryce Harper O/U 1.5 Total Bases
Moving down the lineup, I’m going to back Bryce Harper and take his over on total bases as well. The DH is hitting .288 on the year with 18 big flies and a .889 OPS. As for his head-to-head numbers against Corbin, Harper’s gone 10-35 (.286) with a trio of doubles.
Bet: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115 via DraftKings)
J.T. Realmuto O/U 1.5 Total Bases
We’ll back one more Phillie this afternoon against the lowly left-hander from Washington. J.T. Realmuto has gone 11-30 (.367) against Corbin with two bombs and two doubles. The backstop’s hitting .275 (37th) in 2022 with 21 dingers and an OPS of .815 (30th).
It’s also worth mentioning that the Nationals’ bullpen isn’t necessarily top of the line. They come into today’s game at 16th in ERA (3.92) and 18th in WHIP (1.29). Look for these three sluggers to put on a hitting clinic this afternoon while they try to lock up a Wild Card spot.
Bet: J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 via DraftKings)
Jon Berti O/U 0.5 Total Bases
The Brewers need to salvage a series split this afternoon if they have any ambitions of playing postseason baseball. They’ll hand the ball to Freddy Peralta while the Marlins counter with Pablo Lopez. This N.L. showdown is set for 2:10 p.m. ET from Milwaukee.
Peralta comes into today’s game at 4-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 17 appearances (16 starts). Despite the solid overall numbers, the right-hander didn’t pitch well in September. Peralta posted a 6.35 ERA over three outings (5.2 IP). His most recent game was a bullpen outing against the Marlins on Thursday, where the Fish tagged him for four earned runs on three hits and a walk over 1.2 innings. Peralta took the loss and collected a blown save in the process.
We should expect Jon Berti to be in the leadoff spot this afternoon, and he’s seen Peralta well in his career. Berti’s 2-3 (.667) against the righty with a double. Look for Berti to get at least four, if not five, at-bats today, and he should be able to record a knock.
Bet: Jon Berti Over 0.5 Total Bases (-200 via DraftKings)
Jacob Stallings O/U 0.5 Total Bases
Moving down the lineup, I’m going to take the over on Jacob Stallings’ total bases number. The backstop hit .260 in September with a home run and a double. As for his head-to-head numbers, he’s 3-7 (.429) against Peralta with two doubles.
Typically I’d stay away from teams who’ve struggled on offense as much as Miami did this season. However, considering the current form of Freddy Peralta, I think it’s worth a shot to back a couple of players to record at least one hit apiece.
Bet: Jacob Stallings Over 0.5 Total Bases (-125 via DraftKings)
Go premium to view today’s 5 Star prop bets >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.