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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (10/12)

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We would have had a doubleheader of NLDS games tonight if the Arizona Diamondbacks did not finish the three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers last night. But, alas, the Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 4 gets the MLB spotlight tonight.

In what has been a massively entertaining series thus far, which player props stand out most to us for Thursday’s Braves-Phillies NLDS Game 4 tilt?

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run vs. Braves (+370)

Kyle Schwarber is one of three Phillies hitters to play in all five postseason games thus far and not hit a home run. However, with how the team has been swinging the bats lately, that kind of hitting can be contagious, and we expect Schwarber to get into the home run column tonight. 

The Phillies have averaged nine runs per game in their last three playoff home games against the Braves, and they tagged tonight’s starting pitcher, Spencer Strider, for five earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park last year. 

In September against right-handed pitchers, Schwarber batted .290 and hit the second-most home runs (nine) of any batter in baseball, trailing only Atlanta’s Matt Olson (10). In that split, Schwarber had the sixth-highest OPS (1.187) and the highest ISO (.468). And while Strider is Atlanta’s ace, he has pitched to a 4.25 ERA since May 1 and has the second-highest HR/FB rate (13.5%) of any Braves pitcher with seven or more starts in that stretch. Thus, we are getting great value from one of the game’s best home run hitters to get in on the action.

Spencer Strider Over 3.5 hits allowed (-160)

We mentioned Strider’s struggles in his lone postseason start at Citizens Bank Park last year, and although he allowed five earned runs in that outing, they came on just three hits. As long as Strider is not walking many batters (he led the league with a 2.85 FIP, and his 2.8 BB/9 rate was the best of his young career) or serving up many long balls, Strider should be given a long enough leash for the Phillies to grind out at least four base hits against him.

Given that DraftKings has Strider’s Over on 1.5 walks juiced to -155, we expect that to mean he will be given a long leash, considering he exceeded that total just once in his final three regular season starts. Four of Philadelphia’s eight players who have played in all five postseason games thus far are batting .300 or better in the postseason, and the team has a collective .869 OPS in the playoffs, which means the Phillies are likely to improve their collective .169/.223/.281 slash line against Strider with the pressure of the Braves facing elimination.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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