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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (10/19)

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For the first time since Monday, we have both the ALCS and NLCS being played on the same day. Houston Astros righty Cristian Javier delivered another epic performance yesterday against the Texas Rangers, and he now has allowed just three hits in his last four postseason starts dating back to the 2022 ALCS.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to make their NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies a 2-1 series like the Astros did. However, history is working against them long-term, as they are 0-5 all-time in postseason series where they lose the first game.

What player props catch our eye in this exciting postseason doubleheader?

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alec Bohm Over RBIs vs. Diamondbacks (+150)

The Phillies have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their eight postseason games to this point, and while Chase Field may limit their home run barrage (Chase Field has a -11% HR factor, per Ballpark Pal), the park does allow for more extra-base hits hit in the alleys (+12% 2B/3B factor).

No Phillies hitter has ever faced Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt before. Still, based on Pfaddt’s reverse split in the regular season, where he allowed a .273 OBA to left-handed hitters compared to a .290 OBA to righties, we were excited to back one of the most trustful right-handed bats in Philadelphia’s lineup. Though Pfaadt has limited the damage to three earned runs over seven innings in his two postseason starts (averaging 54.5 pitches per start), he has pitched to a troubling 1.43 WHIP, which could quickly get him into trouble against the hot-swinging Phillies. And while Pfaadt’s strikeout rate improved every month of the season, with a 27.3% strikeout rate as his ceiling over the final month, that will not affect Bohm, whose 15.0% strikeout rate was the lowest of any Phillies hitter since September 1st. Thus, while Bohm’s .589 OPS is the lowest of anyone on the team with a minimum of four postseason games played this year, we expect him to get right against a rookie pitcher who ranks in the eighth percentile in ground ball rate and the third percentile in barrels.

The Over has cashed in each of Philadelphia’s last six day playoff games, and the Phillies have led after the first inning in three consecutive games against NL West opponents, which is likely why the Over 0.5 runs in the first inning odds are a steep -136. Thus, Bohm could cash this wager as early as the top of the first inning, and the fact that he has similar odds to the red-hot Bryce Harper (+145) suggests he should have plenty of chances to plate runs today.

Jose Altuve Over 0.5 runs vs. Rangers (-110)

Astros leadoff man Jose Altuve entered Game 3 slashing .160/.192/.280 in the postseason. His struggles were a microcosm of why Houston was in a 2-0 hole in the ALCS, as everyone outside of Yordan Alvarez (Alvarez was batting .391 in the postseason while the rest of the team was batting .211) was slumping. However, Altuve responded with his 25th postseason home run yesterday (second only behind Manny Ramirez- 29), and the move to Globe Life Field could be exactly what he needed to get going offensively.

In the regular season this year, Altuve slashed .313/.371/.969 in seven road games against the Rangers. He hit seven home runs in seven games, so he has a great chance to plate himself even if no one behind him drives him in. However, we expect production from up and down the Astros lineup, as they hit 16 home runs and scored 39 runs in a three-game road sweep of Texas from Sept. 4-6.

Houston faces Andrew Heaney, who has not pitched since the ALDS Game 1. Heaney’s 4.51 xERA was one of the worst among the Rangers rotation, and his 10.2% barrel rate, 38.6% hard-hit rate, and 9.6% walk rate from the regular season are troubling when facing an Astros lineup that was the AL’s best in wRC+ (122) and OPS (.809), and second in BB/K rate (0.48) against left-handed pitching. Thus, Altuve should have plenty of protection in the lineup today, and we are thrilled with the value of the -110 price tag for him to cross the plate.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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