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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/28)

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While the official start of the Major League Baseball season took place last week with a two-game series in South Korea between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, Thursday has much more of an Opening Day feel, with all 30 teams in action. With that in mind, we scoured the odds to identify our top three MLB Player Prop Bets.

Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bets for Thursday.

    Thursday's Best MLB Player Prop Bets

    (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

    Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100)

    Tyler Glasnow was the Dodgers’ Opening Day starter last week and left the game trailing 2-1 after the fifth inning. His 77-pitch effort served as a reminder of how most managers will have strict pitch counts on starters early in the season, even after going through an extended Spring Training. This is especially true in Glasnow’s case, as he has topped 100 innings just twice in his career, and is coming off a career-high 120 innings last year.

    Glasnow had a preseason O/U of 179.5 strikeouts at FanDuel, and FanGraphs projects him for 190 strikeouts this season. That is high praise for a pitcher whose career high is 162 strikeouts, which is also the only season he has ever recorded more than 136. This is an unusually high strikeout total this early in the season, especially when five innings seems like the most he will throw. There is also the added element that Glasnow’s control was a bit iffy in his first start when he issued more walks (four) than strikeouts (three). In addition, the Cardinals struck out at the seventh-lowest rate against right-handed pitching last season, and the plus-money odds at this lofty total have piqued our interest as our most confident player prop of the day.

    Jonathan India Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-125) 

    The Cincinnati Reds have a team total O/U of 4.5 runs, with the Over juiced to -120, so oddsmakers like their chances to score plenty against Josiah Gray and the Nationals. Gray is just one year removed from finishing with a 5.02 ERA and leading the league in walks and home runs allowed, and his career 31.0% fly ball rate will not play as well in the batter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

    India scored 98 runs while winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2021, and was on pace for 106 runs last year in an injury-plagued season that limited him to 119 games. This is arguably the deepest Reds lineup he has ever been a part of since joining the big leagues three years ago, and even if India and the Reds do not get to Gray early, we expect plenty of offense late when facing a Washington bullpen that had the second-worst ERA (5.02) of any NL team last year.

    Corey Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) 

    Chicago southpaw Justin Steele did not have the most inspiring Spring Training, allowing seven runs over 11 innings. His strikeout stuff remained elite, with a 10.6 K/9 rate, but he got into trouble when batters put the ball in play, just as last year when left-handed hitters had a .317 BABIP against him. In fact, his career BABIP against left-handed hitters is higher than against righties (.318 compared to .309), and the slugging percentages are negligible, with a .362 slugging allowed to lefties compared to .373 allowed to right-handed batters.

    Corey Seager was on pace for 45 home runs last season after being limited to just 119 games but ranked 12th in FanGraphs’ offensive metrics despite missing 43 games after slashing .327/.390/.623. Seager is one of six players in this game with a projected O/U of 1.5 total bases, and he is the likeliest of all of them to go over this projected total with a multi-hit game, let alone doing so with one at-bat with an extra-base hit.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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