MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/20)
We eschew the pitcher prop market for today’s column and focus on our three best batter props for today’s small seven-game Major League Baseball slate.
Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Thursday.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
YTD: 21-28-1 (-4.90 units)
Corbin Carroll to score a run vs. Padres
Predicting success for Corbin Carroll is almost impossible based on past history, as he faces many opposing pitchers for the first time as a rookie. However, with the frequency that the Diamondbacks phenom is getting on base, his odds for scoring runs rise dramatically.
Carroll’s .297 on-base percentage has room for improvement, but he has reached base safely in eight of nine games entering Wednesday, with four multi-hit games in that span. Despite stealing just two bases over his last eight games, he still ranks sixth in the league with seven stolen bases and has yet to be caught.
Opposing starter Michael Wacha has allowed 10.5 hits per nine innings and 2.8 walks per nine thus far, which are both on pace to be his worst since 2020. With the Diamondbacks team total set at O/U 4.5, Carroll is a great bet to be one of the players crossing the plate.
Bet: Carroll to score a run (+100 at DraftKings)
Kris Bryant Over 1.5 total bases vs. Phillies
Phillies southpaw Matt Strahm is set to make his fourth start of the season. And given that he has made 5+ starts in just two seasons before this (and not since 2019), he is about to enter unchartered territory, which means his eye-popping statistics with respect to the rest of his career are due for some regression.
Strahm has a 2.13 ERA and 0.947 WHIP thus far, which are on pace to be the third-best and second-best rates of his career. However, Strahm also has allowed a 41.4% hard-hit percentage allowed (on pace to be the second-worst of his career) and 41.4% fly-ball percentage (the highest of his career), which means those numbers are not sustainable in a hitter-friendly stadium like Citizens Bank Park.
Rockies outfielder Kris Bryant got off to a slow start from a power standpoint this season, with no home runs and just three extra-base hits through the first 12 games. However, he still maintained a solid .306 batting average in that span, which meant it was only a matter of time before Bryant started hitting for more power.
Entering Wednesday, Bryant had hit three home runs in the previous five games, with two multi-hit games in that stretch. Additionally, he recorded at least one hit in 15 of 17 games and exceeded this total base prop in four of six. Therefore, we are backing the Over as Bryant enjoys the advantages of a righty-lefty matchup.
Bet: Bryant Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at DraftKings)
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 total bases vs. Giants
Looking at the past history of hitters and what they have done against opposing pitchers, no hitter on today’s slate has a better track record over a large sample than Francisco Lindor against Sean Manaea.
Lindor is the only player on today’s slate to have an OPS greater than 1.000 against their opposing pitcher (minimum 12 at-bats). His 1.083 career OPS against Giants southpaw Sean Manaea is due primarily to his three extra-base hits (four total hits) in 12 at-bats. One of those hits was a home run, and Lindor has had much more success from the right side of the plate than the left side this year. Lindor entered Wednesday with a .300/.382/.700 slash line (with three home runs) against left-handed pitching compared to a .171/.333/.343 slash line (with one home run) against righties.
Manaea cannot afford to pitch around Lindor, as Pete Alonso hits behind him in the lineup. Alonso entered Wednesday with an RBI in three of four games and the third-best OPS against southpaws (min. 25 PA) this season, so we are encouraged to back the Over on Lindor’s total bases as he has adequate protection from Alonso.
The Over is 4-0-1 in the previous five meetings between these teams and is 17-7-1 in New York’s last 25 road games. We expect Lindor to do his part in making sure those trends continue.
Bet: Lindor Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at DraftKings)
Check out our other best bets for Thursday:
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.