Navigate

MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/18)

by |

Thanks largely to St. Louis Cardinals slugger Nolan Arenado’s hot streak, we cashed two plus-money plays in Tuesday’s column and have again identified our three best plays from Major League Baseball’s small six-game slate. And although Arenado is in action tonight, we are eschewing his batter props in favor of other plays.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Thursday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Steven Kwan Over 0.5 hits vs. White Sox (-250 at DraftKings) 

Chicago White Sox righty Dylan Cease had a much-needed bounce-back start against the Houston Astros, throwing six scoreless innings. Leading up to that start, Cease was allowing xSLG rates of .458 and .498 against his fastball and curveball, and his 10.5 K/9 rate is still down from his 11.1 and 12.3 rates from the last two years. And while Cease still ranks in the 62nd percentile or better in whiff and K percentage, Kwan has struck out in just 10% of his plate appearances (ninth-lowest in the majors), per Inside Edge. In addition, Kwan has a four-game hitting streak and has recorded at least one hit in eight of ten.

Kwan is 5-for-10 with a 1.183 OPS against Cease, so we are getting decent odds for him to total a hit as the table setter for a team that has scored the second-fewest runs in the majors this season.

Randy Arozarena Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Mets (+180 at DraftKings)

The Tampa Bay Rays have scored 7+ runs in four of their last five games, and their 275 runs are nine more than the next closest team. So while none of the Rays have ever faced New York Mets righty Tylor Megill, it makes sense to have some investment in one of their hitters.

Randy Arozarena’s 36 RBIs are seven more than the next-highest of any Rays hitter, as he has relished batting in the cleanup spot of a powerful offense. Arozarena is also tied for the team lead with ten home runs and often does damage when he makes contact, given his impressive .939 OPS despite 42 strikeouts. Arozarena is also comfortable with two outs, as entering Monday, he had the third-best batting average in the majors (.360) in such situations, per Inside Edge. He hits behind Wander Franco, who, per Caesars, is tied for the fourth-shortest odds to win the American League MVP Award, and his +1200 odds are currently the same as defending MVP Aaron Judge. Franco leads all Rays hitters in WAR (2.5), hits (49), doubles (15), stolen bases (14), and total bases (85), and should be one of a handful of hitters providing traffic on the basepaths for Arozarena. 

Megill has an xERA of 5.89, much higher than his actual 4.02 ERA, and he ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in walk rate, strikeout rate, and xBA.

The Rays have won 14 of 15 vs. NL East opponents, and with the Over cashing in each of their last six, we expect their Arozarena to again contribute to their offensive success.

Nestor Cortes Over 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Blue Jays (-145 at DraftKings)

On April 20, in an appearance against the Los Angeles Angels, Cortes had a streak of nine consecutive starts allowing two or fewer earned runs snapped (the streak tied a franchise record). Since then, Cortes has allowed at least three earned runs in three or four starts, and his ERA has risen from 3.09 to 5.53 in that span.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post laid out Cortes’s struggles the third time through the lineup, citing that opposing hitters are 15-for-33 (.455) with a 1.121 slugging percentage and 1.607 OPS (including four doubles and an MLB-high-tying six homers) when facing Cortes a third time.

Now Cortes faces an opponent that has always been a thorn in his side, as he has allowed a .275/.333/.586 slash line in 80 combined at-bats to current Toronto Blue Jays hitters. In addition, Cortes has allowed seven home runs in 32 innings against the Blue Jays, and that 1.97 HR/9 rate is much higher than his 1.5 career average.

The Over has cashed in each of Cortes’s last five starts, and we expect that to continue by way of a successful day offensively for Toronto.

Also check out our other best bets for Thursday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App