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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/4)

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The New York Mets’ prized offseason acquisition, Justin Verlander, makes his long-awaited team debut. However, we have our eyes on two other pitchers to have successful days on the mound and an All-Star slugger due to capitalize on the team’s offensive breakout.

Building off Tuesday’s profitable player prop picks, we look to keep the momentum going today.

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Thursday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Jack Flaherty to record a win vs. Angels

There is arguably no more disappointing team in the majors this season than the St. Louis Cardinals, as they have gone from preseason favorites to win the division to last in the NL Central and the fewest wins in the league. They are also 10+ games under .500 for the first time in 16 seasons. However, St. Louis is four wins worse than expected (per mlb.com’s standings), and the fact that they have their most dependable pitcher on the mound should be signs of optimism.

Flaherty is just 2-3 in six starts this season, largely because his 15.3% walk rate is on pace to be the worst of his career. However, he had a single-digit walk rate in four of the previous five seasons, so we expect the control issues to get corrected. In addition, he is inducing ground balls at the second-highest rate of his career, and he ranks in the 73rd percentile in whiff percentage.

Flaherty loves pitching at home (he has a career 2.86 ERA in home starts), and his .700 winning percentage and 2.80 ERA in 15 career May starts are each his second-best of any month. The Cardinals entered Wednesday with the third-worst run line record (12-18) in the league, and their cover percentage dropped to 27.3% (3-8) as home favorites. Though that does not give us much wiggle room for Flaherty to earn a win, we are finding solace in the fact that St. Louis is still 7-4 in its last 11 interleague games and has won five of its previous seven such games against teams with a winning record.

Bet: Flaherty to record a win (+200 at DraftKings) 

Lucas Giolito Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Twins

This series finale between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox will be played at 2:10 P.M. ET, which should be music to Lucas Giolito’s ears. His ERA is 0.68 runs better in day starts than in night starts (3.89 vs. 4.57). And although the Twins are the only team in the AL Central that Lucas Giolito is under .500 against (8-9), the numbers recently suggest he deserves a different fate. 

Giolito has held current Twins to a .193/.286/.367 slash line in 166 combined at-bats and 31.3% of the outs recorded have come via strikeout. The Twins may be the only team in the division with a positive run differential, but that has more to do with their outstanding pitching than timely hitting, as they rank 21st or worse in wRC+ and wOBA on the road this season. In addition, Minnesota’s .255 BABIP in road games ranks 29th, which is problematic against a strikeout pitcher like Giolito (80th percentile in strikeout percentage in three of the last four seasons).  

The Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these teams and is 18-9-4 in Minnesota’s last 31 against division rivals. We expect Giolito to do his part in assuring the Under cashes again.

Bet: Giolito Under 2.5 earned runs (-140 at DraftKings)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI vs. Red Sox

Games involving the Toronto Blue Jays have been slugfests lately, with 53 combined runs scored in the previous four. It is amazing to think Guerrero has been slightly overshadowed by teammates Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman despite batting .317 so far this year. Still, Guerrero Jr. is undoubtedly due for more run production (18 RBI to this point) if he keeps that average up.

Despite entering Wednesday batting just .250 (6-for-24) in the previous six games, Guerrero drove in four runs in that span. He has three hits in eight at-bats against today’s starter, Brayan Bello. And considering he usually hits behind George Springer and Bo Bichette, who are a combined 9-for-16 (.563) against the righty, there should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths when he hits.

The Over has cashed in the last seven meetings between the Blue Jays and Red Sox and six of the previous seven at Fenway Park. Thus, we expect Guerrero Jr., who ranks in the 94th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, and hard-hit percentage, to be directly involved in another high-scoring affair between these division rivals.

Bet: Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+130 at DraftKings)

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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