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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (6/1)

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Tuesday’s MLB player prop article was littered with three plus-money plays, and two cashed as Ketel Marte and Shohei Ohtani each homered. So what trio of plays caught our eye today to continue this momentum?

Here are our best MLB player prop bets for Thursday.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Freddy Peralta Under 4.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (+110) 

Milwaukee Brewers righty Freddy Peralta has been the victim of a brutal schedule. In four starts against a top-10 offense (the Toronto Blue Jays rank just outside at 11th in runs scored), he has pitched to a 5.48 ERA, 5.9 K-BB%, and 5.16 FIP. And considering that half of those starts came in April, his decline from April to May is egregious. 

In April, Peralta had an 18.2% K-BB%, 3.77 ERA, and allowed opponents a .229/.289/.390 slash line. In May, Peralta had a 10.9% K-BB%, 5.96 ERA, and allowed a slash line of .279/.370/.538. He now faces a Blue Jays offense that has scored 7+ runs in two of four games and has to contend with Bo Bichette’s American League-leading .333 batting average.

The over has cashed in each of Peralta’s last four starts, which suggests another short outing and a subsequently low strikeout total should follow.

Joe Musgrove to record a win vs. Marlins (+150)

While the San Diego Padres may unanimously stake claim to the most disappointing team in baseball after a 25-30 start, better days should be ahead if Joe Musgrove can continue getting back to his All-Star form from a year ago after the injury he suffered in spring training.

Musgrove has an xERA that is nearly two runs lower than his actual ERA (3.69 vs. 5.64) and he broke a two-start stretch where he allowed 4+ earned runs by limiting the New York Yankees to one run in 6 1/3 innings, leading to a road victory. While many will point to Musgrove’s poor ERA as a reason to fade him, his xBA is up just two percentage points from last season. We also expect his 8.4% barrel percentage to regress back to the 6.3% rate he has pitched to his entire career.

There does not appear to be anything wrong mechanically with Musgrove, as his velocity is up on all pitches across the board from last season. Thus, we also expect his 1.8 HR/9 rate to start coming down, which is currently on pace to be the worst of his career. It should also help to face a Marlins team that entered Wednesday tied for the sixth-fewest home runs against right-handed pitching this season.

The Marlins have won just 35% of their games as home underdogs since 2022 (18-33). In addition, we expect the Padres to have offensive success against Jesus Luzardo and his .356 BABIP allowed. That presents great value in Musgrove’s chances to record the win, especially since the under has cashed in each of his previous six road starts.

Chris Sale Over 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Reds (+120)

Boston Red Sox southpaw Chris Sale is on a tear after getting re-acclimated to big-league action following just two starts last season. But he is facing a Cincinnati Reds team on a better hitting split, and there is concern that Sale may have stepped on the pedal too quickly and his recent high pitch counts could be troubling for his future performance. 

After five starts, Sale had an 8.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and .316 OBA. Since then, he has lowered his WHIP and OBA to 1.16 and .237, respectively, and has pitched to a 2.24 ERA over the last five starts. However, the Reds rank third in BABIP (.347) and in the top ten in OPS against left-handed pitching this season. 

Though Cincinnati has struck out at a top-12 rate against southpaws (22.5%), Sale did not look his best against Arizona in his last start, striking out three or fewer batters for just the second time this season. Manager Alex Cora may have pushed Sale too hard recently, as this poor outing from a strikeout standpoint followed consecutive starts where he threw 110+ pitches.

The over has cashed in five of Cincinnati’s last six games against a left-handed starter, and the Red Sox have lost five consecutive games to NL Central opponents. Thus, we are following those trends and expecting the Reds to bring Sale back down to earth.

Also make sure to check out the rest of Thursday's best bets:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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