MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (6/15)
A profitable 2-1 Tuesday could have been an even better 3-0 sweep if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not get pinch-hit for late in the game. Nonetheless, we are back with another trio of player prop picks and are ready to capitalize on the early-week momentum.
Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases vs. Phillies (+120)
Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll is trending to be a shoo-in for the National League Rookie of the Year (currently at -310 odds), given how hot of a start he has had to the season. Entering Wednesday after homering the night before, Carroll led all qualified rookies in home runs (14), slugging (.599) and OPS (.997). He also entered Wednesday leading all position players in WAR (3.5) and was third behind Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez in wRC+, but is second in OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Per Inside Edge, Carroll’s 2.000 OPS in innings 7-9 over the previous 14 days (11 games), entering Wednesday, was the highest in MLB and soared past the league average of .741.
Carroll now faces Philadelphia Phillies righty Aaron Nola, who has pitched to a 5.14 ERA and .237 OBA in eight road starts. Nola has allowed 12 earned runs in nine innings across two career starts at Chase Field. We expect Nola to struggle against a deep Diamondbacks lineup that ranks sixth in BABIP and strikes out at the fifth-lowest rate at home this season. The Over has cashed in each of Arizona’s last four games against right-handed starting pitchers, and we expect Carroll to play a big part in making sure it happens a fifth straight time.
Cristian Javier Under 2.5 earned runs allowed vs. Nationals (-130)
Per Inside Edge, Houston Astros righty Cristian Javier has induced a 38% miss rate against right-handed batters this season, the second-best among all qualified starting pitchers. In addition, he has held opposing batters hitless in 39 straight at-bats that end on a two-strike curveball, which is the longest active streak in the majors.
Javier is 5-0 in his last six starts and earned the win in four of his previous five at home. He has pitched to a 2.67 ERA in six home starts. While his OBA is 45 points higher at home than on the road, Javier has mitigated the damage by allowing just three home runs in 33 2/3 innings at Minute Maid Park.
The Over may be 5-0 in Javier’s last five starts, but the Under has cashed in five of Houston’s last six games against NL East opponents and is 4-1 in its previous five home games against teams with a losing record. Thus, if the Over cashes again with Javier on the mound, it will not be because he had a poor outing.
Nathan Eovaldi to record a win vs. Angels (+220)
This play is as much a fade of Shohei Ohtani as it is in support of Nathan Eovaldi, who is sneakily one of seven American League pitchers with +1300 odds or better to win the Cy Young Award.
There are growing concerns over Shohei Ohtani’s workload, as he is on pace to shatter his previous career-high of 166 innings pitched. That fatigue already looks to be a problem, as Ohtani has pitched to a 4.50 ERA since the calendar turned to May after ending April with a 4-0 record and 2.25 ERA through six starts.
Those downward trends do not inspire confidence heading into a matchup with the Texas Rangers and their MLB-best 415 runs scored and +145 run differential. We also do not expect Ohtani to offer much at the plate, given that he is 2-for-12 with five strikeouts in his career against Eovaldi. Eovaldi ranks top five in baseball in wins, WHIP and innings pitched. We expect him to lead Texas to its 23rd home win (second-most in the Majors).
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.