MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (6/8)
In today’s column, we break down one of the league’s most slumping starting pitchers facing one of MLB’s best offenses. In addition, we analyze another pitcher’s chances against an injury-depleted lineup and offer our confidence in a batter who is due for positive regression from a run-production standpoint.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Thursday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Graham Ashcraft Over 1.5 walks vs. Dodgers (-185)
As Lance McAlister pointed out on Twitter, Graham Ashcraft has not been good for over a month now.
Since May 3, no starting pitcher with a minimum of 20 innings pitched has a worse ERA than Graham Ashcraft’s. Ashcraft has been burned by the long ball, going from one home run allowed through his first 36 innings to eight home runs allowed in his previous 26.1 innings. And since allowing one earned run in six innings on May 2 against the San Diego Padres, his OBA has skyrocketed from .202 to .288.
The Reds coaching staff has allowed Ashcraft to finish 4+ innings in three of the last four starts where he has allowed seven or more earned runs. However, we are getting a better price on his walks than on earned runs allowed, especially since he has struggled with command. Ashcraft has allowed seven walks in his previous nine innings, and given that Los Angeles has the NL’s best walk rate at 11.0%, the basepaths should be flooded with Dodgers today.
Whit Merrifield Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Astros (+180)
Whit Merrifield may rank just seventh among all Toronto Blue Jays hitters with 24 RBIs, but he should see an uptick if he continues to hit close to .300 (.296 current batting average). In addition, Merrifield is an excellent bet to make contact each time up at the plate, as he has not struck out in 25 consecutive plate appearances and ranks in the 80th percentile in whiff percentage.
Through seven games in June, Merrifield is slashing .348/.444/.435 and has driven in three runs. In addition, half of his RBIs have come from the sixth spot in the batting order, where he consistently hits behind All-Stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman.
Merrifield has at least one hit in seven of the previous nine games and now faces Houston Astros southpaw Framber Valdez, against whom he has five hits in ten at-bats, including one home run. Valdez ranks in the bottom 12th percentile in hard contact allowed, and his xERA of 3.85 compared to his actual ERA of 2.17 suggests he is due for regression, which Merrifield should take advantage of today.
Mike Clevinger Under earned runs vs. Yankees (OFF)
Editor’s note: Will update prop and odds once they become available.
New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge may not play enough games due to injuries to warrant serious consideration for a second consecutive AL MVP Award. However, the team is not the same without him, and we expect Chicago White Sox righty Mike Clevinger to take advantage of the injury-depleted lineup.
Entering their current series with the White Sox, the Yankees were 30-19 and averaged nearly five runs per game with Judge in the lineup. Without him, they were 6-6, and their runs per game average dipped to 6.5. In the first games of this series, they scored two total runs and were no-hit through 6 2/3 innings. And with manager Aaron Boone likely to be resting some of his starters in the second game of a doubleheader, the offense could perform even worse.
Mike Clevinger has lowered his OBA from .276 in April to .221 in May and allowed three or fewer hits in two of his last four starts (and six or fewer in four straight). He has the second-best WAR of any White Sox starter, and given that Chicago is 3-2 against teams over .500 in his starts, we expect him to pitch well again tonight. We would play this number up to 2.5 when it becomes available.
Check out our other best bets for Thursday:
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NHL Stanley Cup Finals Player Prop Bet Picks: Game 3 (Panthers vs. Golden Knights)
- NHL PrizePicks Player Predictions
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.