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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (7/27)

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Twenty-two Major League Baseball teams get a welcomed late-season day off on Thursday, but we have still identified three player prop wagers we are confident in among today’s small five-game slate.

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Patrick Sandoval Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed vs. Tigers (Game 2) (+106) 

Los Angeles Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval is pitching in the second game of today’s doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers, which could be very impactful for this wager if the team’s bullpen is depleted after the first game. However, our biggest reason for liking this wager is that the Tigers are in their better-hitting split facing a southpaw. Detroit entered yesterday ranked 21st in wRC+ against left-handed pitching versus 28th against righties and was a top-20 wRC+ team against lefties last season.

Sandoval is not whiffing batters as frequently, with his strikeout percentage down 7% over the last two years, and his walk rate of 9.5% is above the MLB average of 8.4%.

The Over is 43-35 in Detroit’s last 78 games (+7.3 units, 8% ROI), and we expect its offense to do its part in scoring today.

Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 Total Bases vs. Cardinals (+110)

Dansby Swanson has played in four games since a 17-day stint on the IL and has been on a tear. Swanson is 7-for-16 in the last four games with a double, two home runs, six RBIs and four runs scored in three games. He entered Wednesday as the leader among all NL shortstops in fWAR (3.9) and wRC+ (119). The Cubs are 6-0 in the last six games he has played, averaging 7.2 runs per game in that span.

Swanson has padded his statistics in the rivalry games with the St. Louis Cardinals this season, as his 1.424 OPS is his highest against any opponent (min. 10 ABs). He also has tremendous success against Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas, slashing .353/.353/.647 in 17 career at-bats. Mikolas has also struggled against the Cubs this season, allowing six earned runs in 9 1/3 innings over two starts against the NL Central rivals.

Tanner Bibee Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed vs. White Sox (-110)

The Cleveland Guardians are not being given the respect they deserve with rookie Tanner Bibee on the mound, as they are underdogs to the Chicago White Sox. While Chicago and Cleveland have identical 15-14 records against AL Central opponents, Bibee’s form is too much to ignore, as he is coming off the best start of his young MLB career, holding the Philadelphia Phillies to two hits over seven scoreless innings. Bibee pounded the strike zone with 72 strikes in 101 pitches, and per Bally Sports Cleveland, he had 11 0-2 counts and zero 2-0 counts. Furthermore, Cleveland Stats explained why it was a historic start for Bibee.

Bibee ranks in the top 20 of all pitchers that have thrown 70+ innings in FIP (3.52). He has 14 strikeouts, a 1.38 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP since the All-Star Break. He faces a Chicago White Sox team that has cashed the team total Under in 26 of their last 41 home games (+10.65 units, 23% ROI) and should not pose much of a threat.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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