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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (7/6)

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Los Angeles Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani’s player props are often the most wagered upon on any day of the baseball season. This is especially true after a June in which he led the majors in OPS (including both OBP and slugging categories), home runs, RBI and total bases while also pitching to a 3.26 ERA and recording 37 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings. However, with fellow teammate Mike Trout out indefinitely with a broken left wrist, will opposing pitchers challenge Ohtani enough for him to produce numbers anywhere close to those at the plate?

While Ohtani deals with his latest injury, a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand, we focus on three other player props for Thursday, July 6.

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tanner Bibee Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed vs. Royals (-115) 

Cleveland Guardians righty Tanner Bibee has earned the win in half of his six home starts while pitching to a 2.38 ERA and .195 OBA. Per Mike Kurland, Bibee has not allowed a single barrel with a 2.90 xFIP and 3.47 SIERA in his last two starts. Much of that results from a new-look slider with more velocity and less movement. And Cleveland Stats added the following tidbit on Twitter to show how historic Bibee’s first 12 MLB starts have been.

Bibee has pitched at least six innings in four of 12 starts this year. Compared to other pitchers, that lack of innings is not a result of poor pitching but rather caution with a young arm throwing many Big-League innings this early. However, the good news for this wager is that it limits Bibee’s turns through the batting order and lowers his ceiling for the amount of earned runs allowed.

Cleveland has won 70.5% of its previous 61 home meetings with the Royals, and we expect Bibee to lead them to another victory with a solid performance.

Josh Jung Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Red Sox (+125)

Josh Jung and Corbin Carroll were named the first rookie All-Star starters since Aaron Judge in 2017. Jung ranks top-58 in OPS and batting average and is top 20 in home runs. He looks to improve those numbers against Boston Red Sox righty Kutter Crawford, who ranks in the 52nd percentile in xSLG and 41st in barrels. Most of Crawford’s success has come against left-handed batters, as he has held lefties to a .188 OBA with a 10.8 K/9 rate versus a .280 OBA and 6.6 K/9 rate against right-handed batters. Thus, Crawford’s inability to generate strikeouts at the same rate against righties should help Jung’s chances of success, as he leads the team with 103 strikeouts.

Crawford has struggled at home; his ERA at Fenway Park is 2.49 runs higher than his road ERA. Meanwhile, Jung has gone over his total bases prop in five of his previous eight games and has driven in at least one run in six of nine.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 total bases vs. Mets (+105)

We figured it made sense to get involved in this game, given the high projected game total (10). What better way to do that than back a hitter on the favorite while fading Carlos Carrasco‘s poor numbers against right-handed hitters?

Carrasco has allowed an OBA of .299 against righties compared to .237 against lefties. The power numbers are even more concerning, with lefties hitting three home runs against him in 24 innings, versus righties’ nine home runs against him in 29 innings.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit a home run in three of his last six games and has produced multiple RBIs in nine of the previous 17 games in which he has driven in at least one run. In addition, Gurriel Jr. is slugging .516 versus right-handed pitchers (.416 against lefties).

The Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Arizona between these teams, and we expect Gurriel Jr. to do his part in ensuring another high-scoring affair ensues.

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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