MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (8/24)
Aaron Judge clearly did not want to see the New York Yankees endure their first double-digit losing streak since 1913, as he had his first game of his career with three home runs in yesterday’s 9-1 victory over the Washington Nationals. Per Katie Sharp, Judge became the fifth Yankee to have a three HR game that included a grand slam. Elsewhere, Paul DeJong’s four RBIs are tied for the third-most in San Francisco Giants history by a player appearing in his first game and helped them avoid a sweep at the Philadelphia Phillies.
Which players will help their teams to victory today?
Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
J.P. France Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Red Sox (-110)
The Boston Red Sox entered this series against the Houston Astros having swept the New York Yankees in three games in the Bronx, but all that momentum quickly went away after losing the first two games of this series against the Houston Astros by a combined score of 16-7. Things get even tougher to avoid a series loss against arguably the most effective Astros starting pitcher in J.P. France.
Of the four Astros starters that have thrown at least 100 innings this year, France has the second-best HR/9 rate (1.03) and BABIP (.273) but has by far the lowest ERA (2.84). France is above average at missing barrels (56th percentile) and generates whiffs of 23 percent or better on four of his five pitches.
The Red Sox have scored five runs six times in righty Brayan Bello’s previous seven outings and rank in the top six in wRC+ and OPS in road games against right-handed pitchers in August. However, France has a 1.94 ERA in his last seven appearances, and we expect him to continue to limit the Red Sox offense today while throwing his 13th quality start.
Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 total bases vs. Blue Jays (+130)
The Toronto Blue Jays are one of 11 teams that Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman has hit over .290 against this year, and he has been a thorn in their AL East rival’s side, slashing .296/.356/.426 in 54 at-bats. Rutschman also entered Wednesday on a tear over the previous seven-day span, batting .450 and accumulating a 1.142 OPS. And to highlight how well he has seen the ball of late, the seven-day stretch saw him post a walk rate of 15.2 percent and a strikeout rate of just 9.1 percent.
Rutschman has cashed the Over on his total bases prop in four of the last six games and should do so again when facing Jose Berrios, against whom he is 8-for-13 with four extra-base hits and a 1.667 OPS. Berrios’ .254 OBA and 1.28 WHIP are on pace to be his worst of the previous three months, and he has not had the same consistent strikeout ceiling, with three strikeouts in two of his last five starts.
Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 Earned Runs vs. Reds (-150)
Just one game separates the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks in August, as both have struggled with losing records this month. However, Arizona’s 9-11 record this month looks much better than Cincinnati’s 8-12 mark, as the Diamondbacks have won four straight and seven of eight.
Arizona’s Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly make up one of the most feared 1-2 punches at the top of any rotation. Gallen may go on to win the Cy Young Award, while Kelly’s 3.13 ERA ranks seventh in the majors, and his .221 OBA ranks ninth. Kelly snapped a six-start winless streak in his last appearance against the San Diego Padres, in which he overcame four walks. The Diamondbacks could use a big outing from Kelly in this opener, as their following three starters in the series (Brandon Pfaadt, Zach Davies, and Slade Cecconi) are a combined 1-11 on the season.
Arizona benefits from being one of two MLB teams that were off yesterday, while Cincinnati had to grind through a doubleheader, and the Diamondbacks are 3-1 with a rest advantage. Kelly has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his previous six starts, and we expect him to do so again when facing a weary Reds team.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.