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MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (8/31)

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Now that the “dog days” of September are nearly upon us, Major League Baseball is using the last day of August as a planned day off for 22 of the 30 teams. They have also created a day where others have the flexibility to make up games that might have been postponed from earlier this season. Nevertheless, we have still identified a couple of solid player props on this four-game slate.

Which MLB player props do we like best today?

Thursday’s Best MLB Player Props

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Clarke Schmidt Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Tigers (-170) 

After New York Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt’s last outing against the Tampa Bay Rays, he improved to 21 starts where he allowed three or fewer runs this season, which was fourth only behind Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, and teammate Gerrit Cole. Schmidt has already thrown double the number of innings this year (129 2/3) than last year’s previous career high (57 2/3), which has some worried about his ability to keep performing well down the stretch. However, the team has not yet decided to limit his workload going forward, and in fact, the 20 outs he recorded in his last start were a season-high. Another encouraging sign is that he did not walk a batter in that extended outing, breaking a string of seven starts with at least one walk allowed.

Schmidt’s August ERA is a solid 2.83 in four starts, excluding an excusable blow-up against MLB’s best offensive team (Schmidt allowed eight runs in 2 1/3 innings against the Atlanta Braves on August 14). He is in the minority of pitchers whose xERA trumps his actual ERA (4.13 xERA vs. 4.51 actual ERA). His curveball and fastball spin rates that rank in the 94th and 99th percentile, respectively, are a big reason his strikeout rate (22.4%) has held up well compared to the previous three seasons, where he threw limited innings.

Detroit ranks 19th in wRC+ in home games against right-handed pitching in August and boasts MLB’s second-worst BB/K ratio (0.2) in that span. And while the Tigers rank third in BABIP in that split (.342), they have not done much with those opportunities, ranking 20th or worse in slugging and ISO.

Betting on the Tigers’ total Over has been 9-5 in the last 14 games (+2.65 units), but we expect Schmidt to do his part in keeping Detroit’s offense at bay today.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run vs. Dodgers (+380)

In some order, Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Mookie Betts will finish No. 1 and 2 in the National League MVP voting. There are arguments to be made on both sides for who deserves the award. Betts is making a solid late push after Acuna was the favorite for most of the season, thanks to a blistering streak where he has hit safely in 17 of 18 games (13 multi-hit games in that span) and is slashing .454/.512/.796 in August. Betts and teammate Freddie Freeman have been on a historic tear at the top of the Dodgers lineup, as Codify explained.

However, you may have also noticed in that post that the Atlanta Braves 1-2 hitters rank fourth-best all-time, largely because of what Acuna has done this season. Acuna is pushing to become MLB’s first-ever 40/60 player, and he is a big reason why Atlanta’s 36 first-inning home runs before September are the third-most of all time.

Dodgers righty Lance Lynn has made five appearances with the team and allowed six home runs in 31 innings. That is a dangerous way to make a living against a Braves offense with seven players that have hit 20+ home runs while no other team has more than four. Acuna has homered once in three at-bats against Lynn, and we expect one of the game’s most polarizing players to put his footprints all over one of the most anticipated regular season series openers in recent memory.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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